SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…FEB. 17, 2014…ISSUED 2:20 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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UPDATE…10:30 P.M. EST…FEB 19, 2014

Based on analysis of forecast Severe Weather parameters tonight…the following map revision indicates where the most likely location for severe weather will occur (circled in blue), with the greatest probability of embedded isolated tornadoes (circled in red).  I’ll have a complete synopsis in the morning.
day2otlk_1730

Good afternoon everyone!

ALL GRAPHICS ARE LINKED

A little more active on the weather front this week.  A developing surface low will begin to take shape out in the Central Plains by early Thursday morning, based on analysis of the current run of the GFS and NAM models.  This low is forecast to progress quickly toward the NNE, and be over the Great Lakes region by late Thursday evening.  Right now, based on parameters this far in advance, it appears the Great Lakes region will be in for some Lake Effects snow, and possibly freezing rain as the system advances.  Blizzard conditions could be possible, again, based on  the current information.  This is likely to change somewhat over the next few runs, however I will be monitoring the situation.

NCEP GFS 84 HOUR FORECAST VALID 12Z

GFSX FORECAST MINIMUM TEMPERATURES

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/mdl/forecast/graphics/MEX/index.html

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING MAP

However, along with this, we will have to deal with a trof and cold front, which is likely to bring about some severe weather for the Ohio, Tennessee, and Mississippi Valley regions on Thursday…shifting into the SE and Mid Atlantic regions on Friday.

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) in Norman, OK. has issued a 4 – 8 day Severe Weather Outlook for days 4 – 5 in the forecast period

SPC DAY 4 – 8 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

This office will address each threat separately, and will have a full synopsis of each, as they become the Day 1 Outlook.  For all intents and purposes, we will address the DAY 4 threat today.  Based on analysis of upper air maps, forecast sounding parameters from my F5 DATA Severe Weather software, and information contained in this morning’s outlook, I agree at the moment with the SPC forecast of mainly LINEAR, or QLCS (Quasi Linear Convective System) development associated with this front.  There are some severe weather parameters forecast to be in place (i.e. Lifted Indices of -4 to -6 in areas, decent Theta-E (surface), SRH nearing or surpassing 450) to mention a few.  However, what is lacking at the moment are any substantial CAPE values, which are at the moment, in the forecast parameters, to only be around 500 j/kg in some areas.  As per the SPC outlook, there could be isolated tornadoes that could pop up out of the line.  This would mainly be attributed at the moment to forecast speed shear, as the current forecast setup indicates a strong upper level jet, with a fairly strong jetstreak on the order of 100 – 120 knots approaching the areas mentioned.  In addition, a 50 – 65 knot LLJ (Low Level Jet) is forecast to be in place as well.

250 MB UPPER LEVEL JET
250 JET

850 MB LOW LEVEL JET
850 JET

Based on my analysis of CURRENT forecast parameters, the most probable area at the moment at greatest risk for Severe Thunderstorm Activity and Isolated Tornadoes, is in the area I have outlined within the DAY 4 Probability area.
day4prob

I will have another look at model output, and forecast severe weather parameters on Wednesday, and will post any changes.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…FEB. 17, 2014…ISSUED 2:20 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. For a “neutral” ENSO…this has to be one of the most whacked out Winters I’ve ever seen. Part of this would think you’re in a positive ENSO…albeit very little. The other part would suggest a very negative La Nina…how sweet. This is just so crazy…maybe I’m reading this wrong. I’ve had numerous emails from weather gang asking about the brutal winds in February…80 to 100 est gusts in the Western Burbs…been tearing things up. Feb is normally a relatively quiet month in DEN. Normally…a quiet month across the U S. Help me storm…I’m missing something.

    • No, you’re not…it even has me perplexed this season. Only thing that comes to mind right off the top of my head, is the warmer SST Anomalies off the west coast, north of CA, near the Gulf of Alaska. Could be inducing energy into the atmosphere, and messing with the Polar Jet.

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