Good morning everyone!
Analysis of this mornings latest runs of the Global Models, and Regional Model, does confirm a coastal development by late Wednesday / early Thursday along the Eastern Seaboard. Beginning late Wednesday morning, to early afternoon, an area of low pressure begins to develop in the GOMEX, West of the FL. Big Bend area. This will traverse across the northern FL. Peninsula, and exit into the Atlantic, just off the coast slightly SE of GA. and SC. by very early Thursday morning between 1:00 a.m. – 4:00 a.m. EST.
This system is forecast to move in a general NNE direction, and then taking on more of a northerly track (010 degrees). As this low approaches the Tidewater area, it is forecast to begin deepening, and continues to deepen as it approaches the western Nova Scotia area. For residents along the Eastern Seaboard, the area which should receive the strongest portion, are areas around the NJ coastal area, with stronger effects hitting portions of the New England area. Based on forecast sea level pressure values, the New England area could experience effects from a 980 mb to sub 980 mb system.
Residents along the NJ coastal areas could experience sustained winds along the coast of around 30 – 35 mph, and winds of 35 – 40 mph 30 to 50 miles away from the coast.
Residents of the New England areas, especially from just south of Cape Cod, and NWD along the coast of Maine could experience sustained winds at the coast of around 35 – 40 mph, with sustained winds reaching 45 mph in the central portions of the Gulf of Maine.
Given projected sea heights in these areas, especially for the New England coastal areas, I am not ruling out the possibility of some minor coastal breaching, and minor beach erosion.
Precipitation on the backside of this low could be moderate to heavy. Winter precipitation is likely for these areas, and I will not rule out brief, possible Blizzard conditions for portions of New England more toward the coast. Please use the NWS Hazard and Warning map for local NWS Statements for your area concerning this system.
When using the GFS and NAM snowfall accumulation forecast maps, the user is cautioned, these outputs are what the models think MAY OCCUR, and are not to be taken as an OFFICIAL FORECAST. Use your local NWS statements for snowfall potential.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)