COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…FEB. 11, 2014…ISSUED 11:10 A.M. EST…PHFC

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Good morning everyone!

Analysis of this mornings latest runs of the Global Models, and Regional Model, does confirm a coastal development by late Wednesday / early Thursday along the Eastern Seaboard.  Beginning late Wednesday morning, to early afternoon, an area of low pressure begins to develop in the GOMEX, West of the FL. Big Bend area.  This will traverse across the northern FL. Peninsula, and exit into the Atlantic, just off the coast slightly SE of GA. and SC. by very early Thursday morning between 1:00 a.m. – 4:00 a.m. EST.

This system is forecast to move in a general NNE direction, and then taking on more of a northerly track (010 degrees).  As this low approaches the Tidewater area, it is forecast to begin deepening, and continues to deepen as it approaches the western Nova Scotia area.  For residents along the Eastern Seaboard, the area which should receive the strongest portion, are areas around the NJ coastal area, with stronger effects hitting portions of the New England area.  Based on forecast sea level pressure values, the New England area could experience effects from a 980 mb to sub 980 mb system.  

GFS
GFS SURFACE

ECMWF
ECMWF SURFACE

CMC
CMC SURF

Residents along the NJ coastal areas could experience sustained winds along the coast of around 30 – 35 mph, and winds of 35 – 40 mph 30 to 50 miles away from the coast.

Residents of the New England areas, especially from just south of Cape Cod, and NWD along the coast of Maine could experience sustained winds at the coast of around 35 – 40 mph, with sustained winds reaching 45 mph in the central portions of the Gulf of Maine.

Given projected sea heights in these areas, especially for the New England coastal areas, I am not ruling out the possibility of some minor coastal breaching, and minor beach erosion.

NEW JERSEY COASTAL AREA WINDS / SEA HEIGHTS

NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREA WIND / SEA HEIGHT

Precipitation on the backside of this low could be moderate to heavy.  Winter precipitation is likely for these areas, and I will not rule out brief, possible Blizzard conditions for portions of New England more toward the coast.  Please use the NWS Hazard and Warning map for local NWS Statements for your area concerning this system.

GFS 5 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTAL FORECAST

When using the GFS and NAM snowfall accumulation forecast maps, the user is cautioned, these outputs are what the models think MAY OCCUR, and are not to be taken as an OFFICIAL FORECAST.  Use your local NWS statements for snowfall potential.

NAM / GFS SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST FOR 84 – 96 HOURS

GFSX 7 DAY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY U.S. SATELLITE VIEW

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…FEB. 11, 2014…ISSUED 11:10 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hey LT. Wow…this looks like a doozie!! Yeah guys…track is everything. If the Denver Blizzard of 2003 would have tracked a couple of clicks North or South…we wouldn’t have gotten the 8 to 11 feet of snow in the foothills. Even Denver got around 30 inches. For mid March…that’s quite a storm for the city. Take care and stay safe guys!!

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm . Yes this impending storm is the “talk” of the weather world up here. It’s precise track is so important as to wether any particular area gets all snow(Thus a lot, over 1 foot) or wether we get a snow to mix to even rain scenario, which would cut down final accumulations quite a bit. Just a difference of 50-75 miles for that low’s center, will make a lot of difference. We probably won’t know that till Wed. some time. Thanks again. Of course I’ll report in my conditions in Stamford CT., and my final totals on Friday morning.

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