WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…FEB. 04, 2014…ISSUED 6:05 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good evening everyone!

ALL GRAPHICS AND MAPS ARE LINKED…CLICK ON THEM FOR UP TO DATE INFORMATION.

Another shot of colder air will make it south by Friday.  Analysis of the Jetstream forecast and analysis of the surface map forecast, the focus of the bitter cold air will be shifted a little further west, affecting mainly the northern and central portions of the country.  The SEUS should remain pretty mild the remainder of the week, however mainly in extreme southern portions of GA/SC, with very mild temperatures for Florida.  The extreme western Florida Panhandle will experience a flirting with minimum temperatures in the mid 30’s by Thursday, and then recovering.  Albeit a good time out in the forecast, another shot is currently forecast in about 8 – 9 days.

NCEP 72 HOUR GFS FORECAST JETSTREAM LOOP

GFSX 7 DAY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST 192 HOURS
GFS 850

Looking for an increase in rain probs for the eastern U.S. beginning Wednesday, with the heavier precip over the Mid Atlantic and NE regions.  The trailing cold front will bring rain as far south as FL.  with rain chances around 40% Wed. and near 50% on Thursday.

GFS FORECAST SURFACE MAP LOOP

NAM FORECAST SURFACE MAP LOOP

The following is the current projection of snowfall accumulations over the next 72 hours from the NAM and GFS.  (A word of caution…these maps are the output statistics each model BELIEVES what may occur as far as accumulated snowfall, or what you COULD expect regarding information put into the computer model for that particular run…THIS DOES NOT REPRESENT AN ACTUAL FORECAST…given that these totals can change rapidly…please refer to your LOCAL NWS office for their snow fall forecast.)

NAM 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

GFS 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

Albeit we have no issued Severe Weather Threat, the Storm Prediction Center, Norman OK. has a couple interesting Mesoscale Discussions.

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK MAP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

NWS HAZARD AND ACTIVE WARNING DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

I may be taking more time off than I have, in order to research items regarding Hurricane Season.  This research will be nothing I will post, however more of an educational adventure for me to become better skilled at Hurricane Forecasting.  I will however, be posting any updates that are important, or severe enough to warrant attention.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…FEB. 04, 2014…ISSUED 6:05 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Hi Storm and Monty and all, getting ready here in SW CT. for a snow and ICE storm. Probably 4-7″ of snow, topped off by .25-.50″ of ice. They are warning of power outages. Still plenty of snow left on the trees and wires from Monday’s 6-8″ around the NYC Metro Area. I like the snow, but can do without the ice. All schools all ready closed in almost the entire NYC Metro area–except I think NYC schools are open. I’ll let you know what I get. 28F up here now. Snow should start about 2am, then change over to sleet and freezing rain by 8am. or so.

    • originallt says:

      Wound up with 7-8″ with a coating of sleet and freezing rain on top. Precip. just about over now. 33F Baro. down to 29.84″

    • Spent a winter in SW Conn. in 1946-47! Long time ago! Actually enjoyed the snow but before it was all over I went to S.Korea w/ rest of family. Winter, a year later, was unbelievable (to me)! Taught me that cold weather was something to be avoided! Have been doing so ever since. Here I am in Coastal Bend TX and guess what? “We’re still shivering in the dark!”

  2. 7s1b4lSW says:

    Things are lookin’ intrest’n’ in my old stomp’n grounds NW ARK. Thin’s are intr’st’n in th’ Coastal Bend of Texas too! Must be that there Global Warmin’ stuff we been hear’n ’bout!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Ugghhh!! We’re going to be well below zero tonight. Not much snow…just enough to piss you off. Right now we’re at a balmy 8 above…and falling. This has definitely been a deep freeze Winter…will be glad when it’s over

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