BRIEF WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JAN. 31, 2014…ISSUED 4:05 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS GRATEFULLY ACCEPTED
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Good day everyone!

Looks like a change in the pattern for this weekend and upcoming week.  Uncertain at the moment whether or not this is a brief change, or something that will take hold for the month of February.  Based on the current run of the GFS Global Model, and the NAM Regional Model, it appears a shift in the Jetstream will allow for a brief warming trend over the SEUS and portions of the Gulf Coast region and MS Valley region displaying milder minimum over night low temperatures, with these temperatures extending NEWD along a good portion of the Eastern Seaboard.

GFS 300 MB LEVEL (JETSTREAM) FORECAST MAP 120 HOUR LOOP

NAM 300 MB LEVEL FORECAST MAP 72 HOUR LOOP

This is going to be in response to the current Ensemble forecast for the Arctic Oscillation switching to a positive mode.  A stronger Arctic Oscillation means the feature is able to keep cold air dammed up over the Arctic region, giving way to more of a zonal flow pattern with the northern branch of the Jetstream.  It appears at the moment, that the extreme colder temperatures will be further north, and west, confined to the central portions of the U.S. and westward.  However, being so far out in the forecast period of a week or more, this is subject to change, however for all intents and purposes based on the recent model run,  this is what we may expect.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION ENSEMBLE FORECAST

AO

850 MB LEVEL FORECAST TEMPERATURES
GFS 850

GFSX 7 DAY MINIMUM NIGHT TIME TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Looks as if snow and winter precipitation will again affect areas fairly far north, with the exception of an area over the Piedmont region.

NAM 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

GFS 96 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FORECAST

GFS FORECAST SURFACE MAP LOOP

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

ALL maps and graphics are linked in order to access current information…just click on them for access.

I will try to have another synopsis out sometime on Monday.

Have a blessed weekend

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to BRIEF WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…JAN. 31, 2014…ISSUED 4:05 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    After days of showing our minimum temps not going below freezing, the locals are showing mid-20s for part of the week, including a chance of snow Thursday night. Toto, maybe we ARE in Kansas, because this sure isn’t Southeastern Louisiana weather! My best to all in the path of the continued cold, and thanks to Storm for providing this forum for us and sharing his wonderful skills.

  2. Monty says:

    Yeah LT…turned game off after first FG…knew it was over.

  3. originallt says:

    Hi Storm and Monty, yeah, looks like my area will not be quite as cold, but could be stormy, with several, snow to sleet to freezing rain to rain events in the next 2-3 weeks.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah…we’re in for a pattern change. Cold temps and plenty of moisture…unlike the 60+ temps we saw in January.

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