Good day to everyone!
Another repeat is in store of what we have been experiencing over the past couple of weeks. Based on morning analysis of the GFS global model, and the NAM regional Mesoscale model, very cold air will again plunge southward, however I am not expecting brutal temperatures to extend too far south this time, albeit most of the Florida Panhandle will once again see freezing to below freezing temperatures, which will extend westward into a large portion of Texas. EXTREMELY COLD nighttime temps are expected over a good portion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and North Dakota, which will drop to between -25F to -30F on Tuesday morning. These minimum temps are only expected to last 2 to 3 days, with Wednesday into Thursday being the coldest for the deep south. My area (Tampa Bay) FL. should experience lows in the low 40’s, and our Max. temps should reach the low 80’s by the end of the week.
At the current model run time, the NAM and GFS are both indicating a nice swath of snow over a band in the deep south during the next 84 – 96 hours.
INTELLICAST 48 HOUR SNOWFALL FORECAST
More folks across the nation could experience some snowfall accumulations, with some having a good probability of freezing rain or sleet.
Once again, the colder air is heading south due to another negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which indicates a weakening in the Polar Vortex allowing cold air to spill south. I am adding links for the Polar Vortex and Arctic Oscillation as to try and shed some light on this phenomenon and how they work hand in hand.
POLAR VORTEX LINK
SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING LINK
ALL graphics and maps are linked so you may access updated information by clicking on the graphic.
I will be on and off during the week. If I haven’t updated, it doesn’t mean I’ve forgotten about you, but rather I’m out of the office.
STAY WARM and Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)