WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / LINKS FOR POLAR VORTEX INFORMATION…JAN, 27, 2014…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day to everyone!

Another repeat is in store of what we have been experiencing over the past couple of weeks.  Based on morning analysis of the GFS global model, and the NAM regional Mesoscale model, very cold air will again plunge southward, however I am not expecting brutal temperatures to extend too far south this time, albeit most of the Florida Panhandle will once again see freezing to below freezing temperatures, which will extend westward into a large portion of Texas.  EXTREMELY COLD nighttime temps are expected over a good portion of Wisconsin, Minnesota, and North Dakota, which will drop to between -25F to -30F on Tuesday morning.  These minimum temps are only expected to last 2 to 3 days, with Wednesday into Thursday being the coldest for the deep south.  My area (Tampa Bay) FL. should experience lows in the low 40’s, and our Max. temps should reach the low 80’s by the end of the week.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST

At the current model run time, the NAM and GFS are both indicating a nice swath of snow over a band in the deep south during the next 84 – 96 hours.

NAM 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

GFS 96 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

INTELLICAST 48 HOUR SNOWFALL FORECAST

More folks across the nation could experience some snowfall accumulations, with some having a good probability of freezing rain or sleet.

GFSX PRECIPITATION TYPE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING

Once again, the colder air is heading south due to another negative phase of the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which indicates a weakening in the Polar Vortex allowing cold air to spill south.  I am adding links for the Polar Vortex and Arctic Oscillation as to try and shed some light on this phenomenon and how they work hand in hand.

AO INDEX FORECAST

AO

POLAR VORTEX LINK
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/vortex_NH.html

SUDDEN STRATOSPHERIC WARMING LINK
http://ozonewatch.gsfc.nasa.gov/facts/warming_NH.html

ALL graphics and maps are linked so you may access updated information by clicking on the graphic.

NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

I will be on and off during the week.  If I haven’t updated, it doesn’t mean I’ve forgotten about you, but rather I’m out of the office.

STAY WARM and Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

 

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

12 Responses to WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / LINKS FOR POLAR VORTEX INFORMATION…JAN, 27, 2014…ISSUED 2:45 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, we appreciate everything you do for us. Do what you have to do.

  2. dellamom says:

    I am at work in Madisonville today. I am watching the radar and think it won’t be long before I run quick like a bunny to my burrow. We’ve had a few intermittent small showers, but no real rain. However, a coworker’s wife reported some snow north of Covington in northern St. Tammany Parish.

  3. Greg goodman says:

    Me to. Mike is live in mobile to dellamom. Mike. And everyone stay safe thanks mr storm for the update.

  4. Mac says:

    From the NWS (LIX) Slidell, LA office 5PM forecast for Covington, LA:
    “Tonight: A slight chance of rain between midnight and 3am, then a slight chance of freezing rain after 3am. Cloudy, with a low around 34. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 20%.
    Tuesday: Freezing rain and sleet. Temperature falling to around 30 by 2pm. North wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New ice accumulation of 0.1 to 0.2 of an inch possible. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
    Tuesday Night: Freezing rain and sleet before midnight, then snow likely. Low around 21. Wind chill values as low as 11. North wind 10 to 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. New ice accumulation of less than a 0.1 of an inch possible. New snow and sleet accumulation of less than one inch possible.
    Wednesday: Cloudy through mid morning, then gradual clearing, with a high near 34. Wind chill values as low as 10. Northeast wind 5 to 10 mph.
    Wednesday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 23. East wind 5 to 10 mph.”

    So, not quite as severe as this morning’s forecast.

  5. Alicia Lindsey says:

    Thank you.

  6. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I echo Dellamom…thanks always and God Bless!! Dellamom…we’ve actually been spared the brunt of the Arctic air. We had several 60+ degree readings in January. I have a feeling we may not be as fortunate in February though. It’s 20 degrees outside right now with light snow.

    Storm…what do you know about some of the long range models hinting at a possible El Nino around March? Thanks Senior Chief!!

  7. dellamom says:

    Thanks for everything, Storm,and God bless you for keeping us informed of life-threatening situations. Mike, Greg and Mac, I hope you are able to stay home and enjoy the show Mother Nature is going to put on for us. Stay safe and warm. Monty and LT, I hope you are not adversely affected by the blast. Am I glad the year I spent in the beautiful State of Minnesota was not this cold! Persistent double digit lows are no fun at all. Let’s see … fire wood – check; generator – check; thick blanket – check; fuzzy dog who likes to sleep a lot – check. OK, I’m ready …

  8. mike doll says:

    Looks like I’m getting a snow and ice storm here in lower Alabama!!!
    Thanks Storm!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s