WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…FLUCTUATING PATTERN TO CONTINUE…JAN. 22, 2014…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

Based on analysis of the Global Models, it appears this current winter pattern will continue over the next 7-10 days, with continuing very cold temperatures over the majority of the country, a brief 1 – 2 day slight warming, then back to extremely cold temperatures.  This can be pretty much seen in the current Arctic Oscillation (AO) signal forecast, as it fluctuates negative to positive toward negative again.

AO FORECAST

AO

The Global Models, especially the GFS, also indicate ate least 2 – 3 more very cold shots of air after this current one, which will again extend down into the Florida Peninsula.  Valid dates and times are posted in the bottom of the weather graphics.  Minimum temperatures on Thursday morning will reach well below freezing over the extreme North Central Plains area, especially over MN / ND  / SD.

GFS.48. 850

GFS.123. 850

In about 7 days, models are showing an extremely cold intrusion, which should bring frigid low temperatures over the Great Lakes, Ohio and Tennessee Valley, parts of the Midwest, and over the NE and New England areas.  Being a week out in the forecast however, these temperatures could change either way.

GFS 850

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Winds and seas around the Mid Atlantic and NE regions should begin to diminish later this afternoon.

EAST COAST WAVE HEIGHTS FORECAST


I will be keeping tabs on the cold weather regime, however will most likely only post if we have extremes as we are experiencing now, or if a severe weather threat pops into the equation, as I have research I must accomplish.

ALL graphics are linked and will open by clicking on them.

GFS 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

NAM 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

NWS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

Stay warm, and have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…FLUCTUATING PATTERN TO CONTINUE…JAN. 22, 2014…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    And so it begins. Possible snow flurries and sleet are forecast, mostly Baton Rouge and parts west, but possibly some small amount on the Northshore. I haven’t heard of school closings here, but one of my bosses with family in Baton Rouge just said there will be school closings in that area. We don’t do snow and ice well, at any level, in the Deep South. The northshore is expecting temps in the mid-20s tonight, highs tomorrow not over 40,and low 20s tomorrow night. Thursday nite we get another shot of frigid air, and the expected low is 19. EEEEKKKKK! On the plus side, i have actually used my woodstove in the livingroom. I never had one before, just fireplaces. It is quite different.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. I found an interesting site that shows wind-stream flows. the site is called,—earth.nullschool.net/. –Check it out. Used it when we had this last storm on Tuesday you could really pick out the center of the low pressure system. Not sure if these are surface winds or upper-air winds though.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Wow…you poor guys back East. We’ve been spared the worst of the cold in January out West. That will change tonight but nothing near what you guys are feeling!! Stay warm EUS/SEUS!!

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