PRELIMINARY WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY…JAN. 19, 2014…ISSUED 5:25 P.M. EST…PHFC

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Good evening everyone!

This synopsis is a brief summary for the upcoming week.

I’m sure you’ve heard about peat, and repeat.  Were looking at another shot of cold air again coming as far south as the Florida Peninsula.  Based on current model runs, and MOS Output, I am expecting the coldest of the air to be in place on Wednesday (22nd) / Thursday (23rd) of the upcoming week.  Once again, the majority of the U.S. will see below freezing minimum temperatures.  Freezing temperatures will once again affect most of the Florida Panhandle with minimum morning temperatures forecast to be between 29F – 32F.  Freezing temperatures could temporarily affect the northern 1/3 of the Florida Peninsula, and low temperatures around the Tampa Bay area hitting in the upper 30’s to 40F closer to the coast, and mid 30’s further inland.  Thereafter, we should see temperatures begin to moderate somewhat, especially over the south and SE.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

NAM 72 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST
GFS 850

ECMWF 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST
12zecmwf850mbTSLPNA072

CMC 850 MB TEMPERATURE FORECAST
CMC 850

The GFS and ECMWF Global models as well as the NAM, are indicating a 992 mb low developing just offshore of the Tidewater area, and deepening to 992 mb east of the Cape Cod area.  I will be watching this, and will post updated wind and wave maps, as well as projected snowfall accumulation from the GFS and NAM models.

GFS 66 HOUR SURFACE MAP VALID 06Z WED JAN 22

NAM 63 HOUR SURFACE MAP VALID 09Z JAN 22

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

NWS WARNING AND HAZARD DISPLAY…CLICK ON YOUR STATE

My next update will most likely be on Tuesday afternoon to early evening.

On a side note, I have been thinking about taking some time off from the winter weather scene, in order to further research information regarding certain topics as far as the Indian Ocean Dipole, looking for analog years for the upcoming hurricane season, reviewing various seasons against the NAO index prior to the month of June, etc.  Basically, performing a more in depth review of various seasons and parameters to see how these parameters may have affected busy and slow seasons.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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12 Responses to PRELIMINARY WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY…JAN. 19, 2014…ISSUED 5:25 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Thanks gang, for the questions and the winter reports!

  2. originallt says:

    Wound up with 8-9″ of snow at my house, some areas of Long Island and NJ–like Monmouth County, had 12-16″ or so. They were under some heavy snow bands for hours, I didn’t really have that, just mostly moderate snow continuous for several hours, and a few hours of light steady snow. Cold, down to 9F and getting windy from the NW. Lt Stamford CT.

  3. dellamom says:

    It looks like we’re still in a cold weather cycle, which I thought might give us a little break, but apparently the cold weather line is dipping further south than the local mets thought and we aren’t going to have westerly or southwesterly winds yet. The Northshore will have lows in the 20s through Friday night. UGH!!!

  4. originallt says:

    We are having a snow storm today into tonight . I should get 8-12″ by the time it finishes by about 6am Wed. Temps. are about 19F now, going down to 2-7F by Wed. morning. Winds will pick up too. In other words, a good old fashioned New England snow storm, here in SW CT.

  5. greg goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm with that disturance swinging through here Thursday nite through Friday with cold air in place what do you think mr storm?

  6. Monty says:

    Crazy LT…Peyton Manning hates cold weather!!

  7. originallt says:

    Yup, Monty, they will be playing the Sea Hawks–just about in my “back yard”!)

  8. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Yeah…peat jumped off the boat…who was left… I’ll be real curious on your research. Maybe you can make some sense out of things. Stay warm back East everyone. On a slight side note…THE BRONCOS ARE GOING TO SUPER BOWL XLVIII!!!!! I’m scared to death!! LOL

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