WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY…COLDER AIR FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST APPROACHING…JAN. 13, 2014…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…PHFC

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Good afternoon everyone!

Not too much change in the forecast of another shot of cold air coming southward, albeit more of a Polar shot, vice an Arctic outbreak.  Analysis of the GFS and NAM models this morning indicate a corridor of cold air from the Central Plains area, south and eastward by the 16th.  Albeit minimum nighttime temperatures are not forecast to be brutal, most of the country can expect temperatures to be below freezing, with freezing temperatures once again reaching portions of the Florida Panhandle with some lows expected to be in the upper 20’s.  Cold temperatures overnight on the 15th will be over portions of the central Florida area.  The Tampa Bay area may see overnight lows in the upper 30’s inland, to lower 40’s closer to the coast.

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Prior to the FROPA, rain is expected from around South Carolina, and extending SW to across the Florida Peninsula and GOMEX, with some isolated thunderstorms probable over the Florida area.  Rainfall totals are expected to be at least around 0.25″ – 0.50″.  I expect the rain to begin by the overnight hours in the Tampa Bay area, with an increase in rain probabilities to 80% in the Tampa Bay FL. area tomorrow morning

NAM PRECIPITATION

GFS PRECIPITATION

Right now, the only main concern for Mariners is winds of 30 – 35 kts well offshore from the Cape Cod area, northward to Nova Scotia.  Seas could run on the order of 10 – 12 ft.

STORMSURF NEW ENGLAND WINDS FORECAST

STORMSURF NEW ENGLAND SEAS FORECAST

GFS / NAM 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

ALL maps and graphics are linked…please use them to your advantage by clicking on them.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SUMMARY…COLDER AIR FOR THE SOUTH AND EAST APPROACHING…JAN. 13, 2014…ISSUED 1:00 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Hi, guys. Thanks Storm for information to stay safe with. Projections here are for lows in the mid-20s to Mid-30s for the next week, interspersed with rain. Kids (and some adults) are really sorry it hasn’t snowed, since down here everything comes to a standstill and shuts down at the first hint of snow. Considering Louisiana drivers don’t do well in good conditons, that’s probably a good thing. (Repeat after me: “Merging is NOT the adult form of bumper cars.”)

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, looks pretty wet up here tomorrow.–Getting colder as we go thru the week starting WEd., but the coldest air here by Saturday/Sunday, but like you said, not as bad as the last out-break.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…snowin and blowin out West!!

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