SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…JAN. 11, 2014…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER THE SERN U.S. TO MID ATLANTIC COAST…

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP

SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY MAP

Current Doppler Radar shows a heavy line of thunderstorms associated with a QLCS moving through Alabama at this time, and should reach Georgia in about the next 30 – 45 minutes.

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

This system should continue eastward, and should affect the Carolinas and Virginia sometime early afternoon.  Analysis of information contained in the outlook text, 12Z Upper Air Soundings from around the risk area, and Severe Weather Parameters from F5 DATA software does indicate and agrees with the SPC Tornado Probability outline.  Analysis of the F5 DATA model output indicates the greatest risk areas for tornadic activity to lie within the red circled areas this afternoon, as of the 12Z Model runs of the GFS and NAM-WRF.

day1probotlk_1300_torn

The main threat appears to be damaging straight line winds associated with any Bowing / LEWP structures.

The area outlined under the Tornado Probability will be under a powerful upper level and mid level jetstreak, which will produce Helicity values of around and  up to  300-400 M2/S2.

Residents within the risk area are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and Local news and NWS statements.  ALL maps and graphics are linked to provide you real time updated information by clicking on them.

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCH MAP

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS MAP

NWS WARNINGS AND HAZARDS DISPLAY (CLICK ON YOUR STATE)

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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11 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…WIDEST DISSEMINATION REQUESTED…JAN. 11, 2014…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    I received 0.89″ of rain from Saturday’s event.–And BTW, the graphics on your Blog Storm are working for me. Dunno what was wrong with my computer, but now is OK.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…got some pretty severe wx reports out of CHS.

  3. originallt says:

    Yeah, it must be my computer, when I pulled up Storm’s site on my I-Phone, it was totally normal. So no worries Storm. I have some sort of problem. But these posts are showing up OK.

  4. Everything looks fine to me. Maybe I checked in after corrections were made or perhaps others need to reload the pages!

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, one correction though, the Intellicast radar you are showing is not correct, it’s the wrong day, check it out. I’ll report in later today or tomorrow morning with my rain amounts.

    • originallt says:

      Also storm, the last map, the hazards display map is for Jan.2cd. 2014.

      • LT, I just checked the main page, and both graphics are showing the time stamp of 11 JAN.

        • originallt says:

          Storm, on my computer, the map that is posted just above your words, “Have a blessed weekend” has the time stamp of,–01-02-14 at 0620 UTC. And if one looks at the intellicast radar, it is not right. Has a time stamp of 11am 01 Jan. 2014. And the radar map is not indicative of what’s happening out there now. –Again at least on my computer. Check it again. I know you like to be accurate .

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