Good day everyone!
The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms OVER THE SERN U.S. TO MID ATLANTIC COAST…
SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP
Current Doppler Radar shows a heavy line of thunderstorms associated with a QLCS moving through Alabama at this time, and should reach Georgia in about the next 30 – 45 minutes.
This system should continue eastward, and should affect the Carolinas and Virginia sometime early afternoon. Analysis of information contained in the outlook text, 12Z Upper Air Soundings from around the risk area, and Severe Weather Parameters from F5 DATA software does indicate and agrees with the SPC Tornado Probability outline. Analysis of the F5 DATA model output indicates the greatest risk areas for tornadic activity to lie within the red circled areas this afternoon, as of the 12Z Model runs of the GFS and NAM-WRF.
The main threat appears to be damaging straight line winds associated with any Bowing / LEWP structures.
The area outlined under the Tornado Probability will be under a powerful upper level and mid level jetstreak, which will produce Helicity values of around and up to 300-400 M2/S2.
Residents within the risk area are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and Local news and NWS statements. ALL maps and graphics are linked to provide you real time updated information by clicking on them.
Have a blessed weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)