WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY…JAN, 10, 2014…ISSUED 11:15 A.M. EST…PHFC

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Good day all!

Once again, I’ll start with the wind and seas along the NJ / New England area set to occur late Saturday afternoon / early evening as a low pressure center which sweeps across the Great Lakes region, continues NNE over Canada and intensifies.  There has really been no change in the forecast from yesterday, in that the resulting  pressure gradient will bring winds up from the south to around 30 – 35 mph offshore of the NJ area, and along the southern coast of Long Island.  Winds along the coastal areas of Maine are forecast to range between 35 – 40 mph, with areas in the northern Gulf of Maine possibly experiencing winds to 45 mph.  Seas along the Long Island coastline may range 7 – 10 ft, with 9 – 11 ft near Montauk.  Seas along the immediate coast of Maine could range 11 – 15 ft.  Wind induced surf heights will be slightly higher.  This will most likely produce some coastal flooding and beach erosion along south facing beaches, along with strong rip currents.  Residents along these areas are urged to stay away from the beach, and boaters off the water until these conditions subside.

NJ VICINITY WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND VELOCITIES

NEW ENGLAND WAVE HEIGHTS AND WIND VELOCITIES



Analysis of the current Global Model runs, indicate another shot of cold air for the eastern half of the U.S.  as the AO (Arctic Oscillation) takes another dip into the negative range.  Albeit the airmass doesn’t appear to be as brutal, minimum night time temperatures will range in the mid 30′s as far south as portions of TX, LA, MS, AL, and into the FL. Panhandle (where some lows may reach 32F – 31F).  I expect this to occur around the 15th – 16th of the month.  In the extended range, the models hint at another possible shot of cold air, however being further out in the forecast period of more than 7 days, this will be monitored when the forecast period is 3 – 4 days out.  I should have a more detailed synopsis as far as frost / freeze areas, and updated Computer Snowfall Accumulation Output within the 72 hour period prior to this event.

ARCTIC OSCILLATION INDEX GFS ENSEMBLE

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The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) Norman, OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms for Saturday into Saturday evening across parts of the SOUTHERN INTO MID ATLANTIC COAST STATES.

SPC DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK MAP

DAY 2 PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK MAP

DAY 2 OUTLOOK TEXT
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

Analysis of the GFS and NAM output from F5 Data Severe Weather Software, the greatest risk for severe weather should occur within the 15% shaded area, but could extend to within the pink enclosed area on the following map.  I will be updating on this tomorrow, with tornado probs added.

day2probotlk_0700_any

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS / SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER SATURDAY…JAN, 10, 2014…ISSUED 11:15 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm as always. I’ll pass this on to interests in CHS/BWI. We are expecting quite a windy event in DEN…especially in the foothills. Forecasters say we could get gusts as high as 90 mph…right where the ex lives. Sorry…I didn’t plan it that way. 😦

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