WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS UPDATE: FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED AROUND PORTIONS OF THE TAMPA BAY FLORIDA AREA

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Good day everyone!

Time for round 2 of winter weather.

Analysis this morning of the current GFS and NAM runs indicate low pressure tracking as forecast.  As the low intensifies, Mariners from the Mid Atlantic area, northward can expect seas offshore, from 69W to 63W, to run between 14-18 ft.  Along the New England coast, waves could run 6-8 ft along the coast with winds approaching the 30 knot range…for the offshore area, winds of 30-35 knots will most likely occur, as the low intensifies.  On the backside of this low, more snow on the way, changing to frozen precipitation later.  Based on model analysis, I am expecting the heaviest accumulations over the next 84-96 hours to occur over Indiana, SW into Missouri.  Looking also for blowing Lake Effects Snow over portions of Indiana, Ohio, and western portions of PA and NY.

GFS / NAM MODEL OUTPUT LOOP

U.S. SATELLITE LOOP (RGB CHANNEL)

EAST COAST WAVE AND WIND FORECAST (STORMSURF)

NAM 84 HOUR / GFS 96 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

With this system, comes a moderate shot of Arctic air.  Forecast lows for Tuesday morning indicate below freezing temperatures as far south as most of Texas and Louisiana, with teens forecast for minimum temperatures, as well as a good majority of the Florida Panhandle.  I am expecting possible freezing temperatures all the way down to my area (Tampa Bay), with lows ranging from 30 to 32F around the TPA and MacDill area to 36F in some areas closer toward the coast.  Residents from this area, north, should monitor this possibility closely, as to protect tender plants.  PLEASE, remember to bring any pets indoors…they get cold just as we do.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

There is a good possibility I may not be on tomorrow, as my car needs to go back in the shop.  So, as always, ALL graphics are linked to their websites in order to provide up to date information…just click and you’re there.

Have a blessed evening, and stay warm!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS UPDATE: FREEZING OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES STILL EXPECTED AROUND PORTIONS OF THE TAMPA BAY FLORIDA AREA

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm got down to 14 in mobile this morning.

  2. originallt says:

    Got down to 6F here this morning.–A bit milder than thought. Apparently the cold air is still more concentrated to my West and Northwest. Don’t get me wrong, it’s cold and windy here, but not quite as bad as I thought. Stamford CT.–NYC was actually colder than me, that’s unusual. It made it down to 4F there.

  3. Mac says:

    Wow LT, you had a warmer high up there in the NE than we did down here in SE LA! Got all the way up to 36F, and now down to 31F dropping into the teens tonight. WAY too cold for us down here in the deep south. Like Monty said, we’re also ready for summer to return. I know my natural gas company is loving this weather!!!

    A belated Happy New Years to all!

    • dellamom says:

      I’m shivering right along with you Mac. The lowest reading i saw on WWL for Mandeville 70471 was 17 degrees about 6:30 a.m. to day. Another check at about 10:30 had it still at 27. Brrrrr. For those not familiar, the air down here is very humid due to the swampy nature of our surroundings and 17 degrees here feels like below zero to more northern climes. Storm, I hope all is well with the auto.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, waiting for the cold air to “barrel” into my area. Looks like 0-5F by 7am Tuesday morning. Almost all my snow has been washed away. Temp. hit 54F this morning, now down to 43F Baro. is 29.46″. the lowest it got was 29.42″. Wind is now NW but not too strong yet.Still raining but should be over by 3pm or so.

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