WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE TAMPA BAY AREA…JAN. 05, 2014…ISSUED 4:40 P.M. EST

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Good day everyone!

Time for round 2 of winter weather.

Analysis this afternoon of the current GFS and NAM runs indicate low pressure developing over the W. TN Valley region, and will track NNE over extreme western PA. and NY over the next 24 hours.  As the low intensifies, Mariners from the Mid Atlantic area, northward can expect seas offshore, from 69W to 63W, to run between 14-18 ft.  Along the New England coast, waves could run 6-8 ft along the coast with winds approaching the 30 knot range…for the offshore area, winds of 30-35 knots will most likely occur, as the low intensifies.  On the backside of this low, more snow on the way, changing to frozen precipitation later.  Based on model analysis, I am expecting the heaviest accumulations over the next 84-96 hours to occur over Indiana, SW into Missouri.  Looking also for blowing Lake Effects Snow over portions of Indiana, Ohio, and western portions of PA and NY.

GFS / NAM MODEL OUTPUT LOOP

U.S. SATELLITE LOOP (RGB CHANNEL)

EAST COAST WAVE AND WIND FORECAST (STORMSURF)

NAM 84 HOUR / GFS 96 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

With this system, comes a moderate shot of Arctic air.  Forecast lows for Tuesday morning indicate below freezing temperatures as far south as most of Texas and Louisiana, with teens forecast for minimum temperatures, as well as a good majority of the Florida Panhandle.  I am expecting possible freezing temperatures all the way down to my area (Tampa Bay), with lows ranging from 30 – 32F around the TPA and MacDill area – 35F in some areas closer toward the coast.  Residents from this area, north, should monitor this possibility closely, as to protect tender plants.  PLEASE, remember to bring any pets indoors…they get cold just as we do.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING DISPLAY

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

There is a good possibility I may not be on tomorrow, as my car needs to go back in the shop.  So, as always, ALL graphics are linked to their websites in order to provide up to date information…just click and you’re there.

Have a blessed evening, and stay warm!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE FREEZING TEMPERATURES WITHIN THE TAMPA BAY AREA…JAN. 05, 2014…ISSUED 4:40 P.M. EST

  1. dellamom says:

    Locals had been forecasting 17 for an overnight low tonight. Now it’s down to 15 tonight qnd 19 tomorrow night north of the lake (that would be me). Excuse me, but this is the Deep South, not the Deep Freeze! We don’t even really have true winter clothes (except maybe people who go on frequent ski vacations). Expect to see a community of Michelin People with all our layers piled on. 🙂 God bless all in the path of the cold, and please look out for older neighbors or those who may not be able to afford much in the way of heat or need help with additional precautions.

  2. originallt says:

    Brutally cold air heading here too, by Tuesday. Could be ZERO!. But I heard by Saturday, and lasting for a week or so, a “January Thaw” is coming. Hope so.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    We are suppose to be in the upper teens to low 20’s Tuesday Morning and low 20’s for Monday Morning here is SE Texas!! BURR…..

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I hope everything went well with the horse rescue and hope everything goes well with your car…darn it!!

    What’s up with all this Arctic garbage?? You would think we were in a major negative ENSO tilt. We’re looking at -5 to -10 lows in DEN.

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