WINTER WEATHER / POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JAN. 01, 2014…ISSUED 1:45 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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HAPPY NEW YEAR again!, everyone.

Very little change to what was in yesterday’s forecast.  A broad trof of low pressure is noted on satellite imagery with frontal overlays posted.  This will come NE over the northern portions of the FL. Peninsula during the next 12 -14 hours, and covering portions of AL/MS.  By late Friday morning, 01/02/14, this trof begins to develop a surface low off the NC coast, as a low from the TN Valley region moves east, transferring energy to this low.  The low begins to deepen with one center over the Atlantic, offshore of the DELMARVA area just after midnight on Friday (approx. 1:00 a.m.) morning.

SSEC SATELLITE LOOP

NCEP GFS FORECAST 12Z RUN

NCEP GFS 10 METER WIND

NCEP GFS PRECIPITATION TOTAL (4 DAY LOOP)

As this low intensifies late in the period, winds east and SE of the center are forecast to run around 50-60 mph in some portions.  On the back side, snow and wintry precipitation is forecast for mainly the NE and New England states.  Based on forecast wind velocities, I cannot rule out blizzard conditions for portions of New England and the NE, especially closer toward the coastal areas.  On average, sustained winds at and close to the coast should range between 30-40 mph, with some areas 45 to possibly 50 mph.

“STORMSURF” NEW ENGLAND WIND, WAVE, AND SURF FORECAST (LOOPED)

EAST COAST WIND, WAVE AND SURF FORECAST

Based on forecast sea heights, and high winds, some coastal flooding may occur on north facing beaches, with some possible beach erosion.  Residents around and near the Cape Cod area should be prepared for these conditions by Friday morning.  Boaters should remain in port until this system has passed, and residents are urged to remain away from the beach, due to high surf conditions.

Still looking at freezing minimum temperatures plunging pretty far south late next week.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

Please use the maps and graphics to your advantage by clicking on them for up to date information.  They are all linked to their perspective websites.

GFS 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

ETA 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

NWS ACTIVE WATCH / WARNING MAP (CLICK ON YOUR AREA OF INTEREST)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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14 Responses to WINTER WEATHER / POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS FORECAST SYNOPSIS…JAN. 01, 2014…ISSUED 1:45 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Just about over here, got between 6-8″, somewhat less than I thought. Seems with this extreme cold, the storm was “shoved” a bit further South and East, thus keeping the heavier bands of snow over eastern NJ and out over Long Island. We had steady moderate snow here, never “white out” conditions they were forecasting. Must say it has been real cold for the entire “snow event”. Temps. only in the mid-teens, then dropping to about 6F this morning. Some of the coldest conditions during a snow storm I can remember around these parts.–Areas in NJ that I mentioned got 10-14″. Of course in the Boston area, there were reports of over 2 feet! Also on Cape Cod.

  2. originallt says:

    Storm, thanks for that VISIBLE Satellite you have of the US. When I click on it I can really see “my storm” coming together!

  3. dellamom says:

    Happy New Year to all. One of the local channels is showing lows on the Northshore for the next week of 28/26/47/30/20/30. Our high was around 50 this morning and it will not get any warmer. God have mercy on points north. Down here, 27 for 4 or more hours is pipe-bursting weather. 20 should be interesting. I already know Saturday will involve double checking the wrapping on my pipes. Thanks for the graphics, Storm. I am visual and they really help me get the big picture. Thanks for all you do.

  4. greg goodman says:

    hello mr storm looks like all these gulf lows and all this cold air coming down is it just a matter of time before we get a winter event on the gulf coast including yourself.What are your thoughts mr storm?Happy newyear.

    • Greg, hard to say right now. If the pattern persists as it has, it doesn’t look like too much in the way of snow…however, I’ll have to keep an eye out during Feb. Always the possibility the pattern could shift somewhat. IF you’re gonna get snow or anything this year…you’ll find it here.

      Happy New Year

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, Looks like things are coming together for me, for a 10-16″ snow fall by Friday noon. I’ll let you know. And Happy New Year to you too Monty and Dellamom and all.

  6. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like the NWS advisories/warnings are right in line with your forecast…think they don’t check in with your blog from time to time?? In Colorado…we are celebrating the first day of legalized marijuana. Rumor has it that the University of Colorado will be hosting the first Bowl Game in the history of the state next year. It will be called the Smoka Bowl. Sorry…just my sick sense of humor emerging again. HAPPY NEW YEAR STORM…LT…DELLAMOM AND EVERYONE!! I wish all of you the best and most prosperous year!!

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