WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…ISSUED DEC. 31, 2013…1:45 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Happy New Year everyone!

Looks like the makings of a not so pleasant THU/FRI for the NE U.S. and New England area.

Analysis of Global and Regional modeling indicates a low pressure area will develop somewhere in the lower Ohio to upper Tennessee Valley area beginning very early on Thursday morning.  This low is forecast to move east, and transfer energy off the coast of DELMARVA area to Mid Atlantic region, again setting up a Norlun type trof pattern.  Once this occurs, this feature moves NEWD, and intensifies as a single low pressure system, with snow and winter precipitation on the backside.  Based on analysis of the isobar spacing and 10 meter wind analysis, I cannot rule out blizzard conditions for portions of the NE and New England area very late Thursday, or early a.m. on Friday.

NCEP GFS / NAM FORECAST

Analysis of wave and wind models suggest sustained winds near the coast of around 30 mph, and just off the coast 35-40 mph in isolated areas.  A combination of wave heights and wind speed could induce some minor coastal flooding from NJ, northward.

NEW ENGLAND AREA WAVE / WIND FORECAST

U.S. EAST COAST WAVE / WIND FORECAST

In addition to this, look for snow down to TN. and portions of NC.

GFS 120 HOUR / ETA 84 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FORECAST

Expecting night time minimum temperatures to be in the freezing range as far south a portions of south TX, and in LA, EWD into portions of the western FL. Panhandle. 

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

I’ll be providing satellite images and the NWS Hazards and warnings map when this develops.

Have a blessed and safe New Years Eve!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…POSSIBLE BLIZZARD CONDITIONS…ISSUED DEC. 31, 2013…1:45 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thank you and Happy New Year to you Storm, and your family too. And Happy New Year to everyone who visits Storm’s Blog. I’ll be reporting to you as the snow is coming down, and exactly what I get up here in Stamford CT.

  2. Monty says:

    By the way…Happy New Year Storm and everyone!!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Boy…just what those guys DON’T need!!

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