Happy New Year everyone!
Looks like the makings of a not so pleasant THU/FRI for the NE U.S. and New England area.
Analysis of Global and Regional modeling indicates a low pressure area will develop somewhere in the lower Ohio to upper Tennessee Valley area beginning very early on Thursday morning. This low is forecast to move east, and transfer energy off the coast of DELMARVA area to Mid Atlantic region, again setting up a Norlun type trof pattern. Once this occurs, this feature moves NEWD, and intensifies as a single low pressure system, with snow and winter precipitation on the backside. Based on analysis of the isobar spacing and 10 meter wind analysis, I cannot rule out blizzard conditions for portions of the NE and New England area very late Thursday, or early a.m. on Friday.
Analysis of wave and wind models suggest sustained winds near the coast of around 30 mph, and just off the coast 35-40 mph in isolated areas. A combination of wave heights and wind speed could induce some minor coastal flooding from NJ, northward.
In addition to this, look for snow down to TN. and portions of NC.
Expecting night time minimum temperatures to be in the freezing range as far south a portions of south TX, and in LA, EWD into portions of the western FL. Panhandle.
I’ll be providing satellite images and the NWS Hazards and warnings map when this develops.
Have a blessed and safe New Years Eve!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)