GULF COAST TROF / EASTERN SEABOARD COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…DEC. 27, 2013…ISSUED 10:00 A.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good morning everyone!

As of analysis this morning, we are beginning to see what will be a coastal low for the NE and New England area in about 60-72 hours, starting to take shape in the extreme northern GOMEX, as a trof of low pressure, which will move pretty much in a NE direction out of the GOMEX, moving over the extreme western portion of the Florida Panhandle, over Georgia, and continuing NE, and eventually exiting along the eastern seaboard off the coastal area of VA/NJ.

EAST COAST SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

NCEP GFS MODEL LOOP

This system has the potential to bring some heavy rain along it’s path.  As of this morning’s analysis, OPF totals were ranging between 2 – 3 inches total.  This could cause low lying areas to see some flooding, along with some localized flooding as well.

NCEP GFS PRECIPITATION TOTAL LOOP

GFSX MOS QPF ESTIMATES

This did seem at the beginning to almost resemble a Miller B setup once off the eastern seaboard, however some research performed indicates this appears to set up as a Norlun type trof, in which heavier snowfall on the backside of the coastal low would be limited to narrow banding.

GFS 96 HOUR SNOWFALL / ETA 84 HOUR SNOWFALL

For the most part, winds should remain mostly offshore, but with a brief period for onshore winds along the VA to ME coastal areas, on the order of 30 – 35 mph.  This could potentially allow for some minor beach erosion…not ruling out brief minor coastal flooding with seas running around 8 – 9 feet near the coast.

STORMSURF WIND AND WAVE MODELS U.S. EAST COAST

Boaters, it is recommended you stay in port until this system passes, as winds and seas are forecast to be much higher offshore.

ALL maps and graphics are linked to keep you up to date.  The NWS Hazard and Warning map will provide you with real time NW Statements and Warnings by clicking on your state.

NWS HAZARD AND WARNING MAP

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS PAGE

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

I will monitor this developing storm over the weekend, and post if necessary.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in COASTAL STORM SYNOPSIS, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

8 Responses to GULF COAST TROF / EASTERN SEABOARD COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…DEC. 27, 2013…ISSUED 10:00 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Wound up with 1.16″ of rain. Baro. lowest point was 29.42″ Temp. was at 39-43F during the precipitation event . –On to the next storm–first the cold though!

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm Looks like a real “wet” system for us in Sw CT. I bet over 1.5″ of rain here by 6am Monday morning. I’ll let you know. Then real cold, Tues., Wed., Thurs., then a “possible snow storm” for Friday. I guess we’ll see!

  3. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks storm. A belated merry Christmas and gave a happy new year .
    Any time frame for 2013 hurricane season thoughts and analysis again thanks

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Hopefully the heart of this thing stays off the coast. Wow…gotta love the -35F lows in Minnesota!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s