Good afternoon everyone…looks like a rough day ahead for some in the south. The Storm Prediction Center, Norman, OK. has issued a Public Severe Weather Outlook…issued at 2:37 a.m. CDT. The SPC has also extended and broadened the MODERATE risk area this morning in the Day 1 Convective Outlook.
SPC TORNADO PROBABILITY MAP
SPC PUBLIC SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK STATEMENT
Analysis of current upper level and surface maps indicates shear will be sufficient enough to allow for rotating supercell thunderstorms. A moderate LLJ is in place, with a strong SWLY flow from the 500 mb level, up to 200 mb, where a Jetstreak on the order of over 100+ knots is over the region. This setup will continue to shift North and East throughout the day.
Analysis of Severe Weather Indices and Parameters from output of the GFS, NAM-WRF models through F5 Data Severe Weather Software indicates tornado activity through this afternoon, will most likely occur within the 10% prob. range shown in the SPC map. I was going to provide my own graphic for this next portion, however SPC has accomplished this for me. Based on the same F5 Data analysis, tornadoes within the hatched region may most likely attain EF2 – EF3 status.
Albeit CAPE is not really dramatic, some of the morning soundings do forecast SBCAPE could attain 1000 – 1400 j/kg in some portions of the moderate risk area. Other parameters however are fairly positive for some isolated strong tornadoes, especially if cloud cover dissipates. Dew-points over the area will remain within the 60F – 70F range through tonight. Lifted Indices are forecast to range between -2 to -6. The SWEAT Index values from now until around after 3:00 p.m. EST are forecast to average around 400 – 425. 400+ in this value indicates tornadic supercells are pretty much likely. SRH (Storm Relative Helicity) is forecast to range around 300-600 in some isolated areas within the hatched area.
Given the forecast of a very moist setup up to the 500 mb level, and decent helicity, a threat for some isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out later this evening into the overnight hours in the Ohio Valley region.
Residents who own one, are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and tune in to local news stations for breaking news on severe weather. Residents should also monitor local NWS office statements and warnings if issued. ALL maps and graphics here are linked in order for you to keep current with Watches Warnings and Statements. The NWS Hazard and Warnings display is linked as such, that you click on your state for current watch, warning, and statement information. I will be in and out of the office today checking the progress of this situation, and will try to update accordingly.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)