WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…DEC. 16, 2013…ISSUED 2:25 P.M. EST…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

There really isn’t much change in the pattern over the next 5-6 days…basically a pattern that keeps reloading, with most of the coldest air and winter precipitation affecting the same areas of the Eastern U.S., and very cold air dipping down far south out toward the western U.S.  Analysis of the current AO forecast indicates this type of pattern may continue for a bit.  I really am not expecting any type of Arctic Outbreak in the near future.  We generally see an Arctic outbreak, with substantial below freezing readings down into FL., when the AO takes a sharp dip into the negative.  Pretty much have another low that will be affecting the eastern portion of the U.S. which develops over Texas in about 5 days, then moves quickly NE into the Ohio Valley region, bringing some moderate to heavy rain with it by the 22nd, with the rain turning to snow and frozen precipitation behind the front and on the backside of the system.  I will be looking closer at this near weeks end.

CPC ARCTIC OSCILLATION ENSEMBLE FORECAST

NCEP GFS FORECAST MAP (CLICK TO WATCH LOOP)

I am still putting together a post season narrative for the 2013 Hurricane Season.  So should I not make it on over the next few days, please refer to the posted graphics which are linked, and the NWS Hazards and Warnings map which will provide information on advisories and warnings for your state, by clicking on your state within the map.

GFS 5 DAY MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

ETA / GFS 84 – 96 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FORECAST

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE OUTLOOK

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS…DEC. 16, 2013…ISSUED 2:25 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Hello to all. Storm, I hope your sons are well and recent difficulties have been resolved. We here in bad driver h*** (see worst driver report in the news) are having our typical winter weather. Toward the end of the week, we will have low temperatures higher than the highs for the beginning of the week and the beginning of next week. Coats on, coats off. (Thank you Mr. Miagi. (sp?)) I’m still waiting to see if this will be a shorts-and-flip-flops Christmas, or a light-the-fireplace Christmas, or a frozen pipes Christmas like we had several years ago. I hope everyone has a wonderful holiday season and that next year is a good one for all of us.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Looking for a quick hitting Alberta Clipper to give my area 1-3″ to 2-4″ of snow on Tuesday. I’ll tell you how it pans out.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Models really backed off from last week on another Arctic outbreak for us…no complaints from me. Looking forward to your post season comments…should be interesting.

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