WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…DEC. 06, 2013…ISSUED 3:10 P.M. EST…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

Analysis of Global Models and Severe Weather parameters indicates a lack of any coastal storms or severe weather over the next week.

The SPC has however issued a Mesoscale Discussion regarding mixed winter precipitation.

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSION DISPLAY (LINKED)

Based on model analysis, this precipitation should continue today for the next few hours.  Expect winter precipitation to begin around the four corners region by late Saturday, early Sunday.

GFS 12Z 1000-500 MB THICKNESS MAP

I am expecting a small intrusion of Arctic air over the North Central Plains, from ND to NB during the next 30-36 hours.

INTELLICAST TEMPERATURE FORECAST (LINKED)

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Computer snowfall accumulations are forecast to continue over the same area over the next 3-4 days.

GFS 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

ETA 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

If we have nothing ongoing, I may try to workout posting about the 2013 Hurricane Season next week.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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15 Responses to WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…DEC. 06, 2013…ISSUED 3:10 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Expecting 2-4″ of snow here in Sw CT. on Tuesday, possibly more if we have some”banding” developing, and your area happens to be under that banding. Should start by me about 9-10am, and be over about 4-5pm. I’ll let you know what I get.

      • originallt says:

        The snow actually started between 7-8am, a little early. Looks more like a 3-5″ fall here in SW CT. So far about 1″. The Temp. is actually about 1 degree above freezing, so that may keep down totals, but everything is covered, a wet sticky snow, all over the tree branches and wires. Baro.29.97 steady, hardly any wind. Will check back in later.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. We’re currently at a comfortable 2 degrees above zero…headed for third straight night of sub zero readings compliments of the…correct me if I’m wrong…Siberian Express. We didn’t get much snow where I am but mountain locations picked up accumulations between 1 to 3 feet. They can have it. This is perfect weather though…if you’re a ^%$%&** Penguin!! YUCK!! Friends in DFW are reporting 1 to 3 inch ice accumulations…locally higher amounts…a total nightmare for us out West. We’ve got…what looks like…to be another re-enforcing shot of arctic air in here Saturday night. Just what we need. It might be Wednesday before we get above freezing. I’m glad you were spared the brunt of this system LT. You don’t want to have anything to do with this beast from Mother Russia. Take care all…stay warm.

    • originallt says:

      Thanks Monty, but we could catch some snow and or ice from this system by early Sat. morning, and again Sunday night. Look at the radar Storm supplies, you can see the snow line creeping towards me here in Sw CT. I’m down to 36F now, just a couple of hours ago it was 40F. So by midnight or so, the rain may be changing over to snow.

      • originallt says:

        Had very little snow, no accumulation at all.

      • Monty says:

        Well LT…we managed to make it to a balmy 9 above today. It looks like another below zero night ahead followed by another shot of Arctic air. We’re on pace to break the outbreak record of 1985…I think that was the year. Regardless…this sucks. Divorce can’t end quick enough so I can get the hell out of here and head South!!

        • originallt says:

          Good luck to you, I know you are going through rough times. My son got divorced after 1and1/2 years of marriage, it’s not easy–at least no kids were involved in his case.

          • Monty says:

            No kids in mine…but 23 years of misery…going to count for something for her.

            • originallt says:

              Sorry you had that long a time being unhappy. Things will get better.

              • dellamom says:

                My sympathies on both fronts, Monty (weather and divorce). My 21 year marriage ended so he could marry the woman he was engaged to. Eight years later and both remarried, the relationship has improved. As for weather, here in the Deep South, we are going from night temperatures near- to below-freezing to the mid-60s, and days between 50 and 80. We can’t really pack up summer clothes for winter because we have been known to have Christmases where we were in shorts and barefoot, although I don’t think this will be one of those years. Storm, I hope all is well with your son’s situation, that Santa is good to you, and that the new year brings you all that is good.

                • Monty says:

                  Thanks Dellamom….LT…Storm and all. It’s good to know I have a lot of caring people around me and many good friends on this blog!!

            • Monty, I got divorced after 18 years of marriage.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, that real cold air is having trouble moving Eastward. The flow is more SW to NE.

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