Good day everyone! Thanks for all the well wishes!
The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST LA THROUGH CENTRAL MS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL AL.
There is a 5% area for tornadic activity, however a quick look analysis of parameters show any tornadoes will most likely be isolated.
Residents under the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements and warnings.
Elsewhere, looks like some extremely cold temperatures during the nights over the next few days over portions of the northern two thirds of the country.
Computer model output is showing a band of snowfall accumulation over the next 84 to 120 hours from Oklahoma, NEWD to New England. The maps below should be considered preliminary, as these totals and locations could vary, depending on certain forecast parameters.
GFS 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION
Analysis of surface an upper air maps indicate a clash of warm and cold air from PA., NEWD. Albeit a strong 200 mb jet max will be in the vicinity, I don’t feel at the moment severe weather will be an issue, given the entrance and exit regions are displaced fairly far east of the trof axis, which will be of a positive tilt.
When I get the time, I will be working on a post tropical season analysis of the conditions we saw during the season.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)