SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…DEC. 05, 2013…ISSUED 1:55 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!  Thanks for all the well wishes!

The Storm Prediction Center has issued a SLIGHT risk of Severe Thunderstorms FROM EXTREME NORTHEAST LA THROUGH CENTRAL MS INTO NORTH AND CENTRAL AL.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

There is a 5% area for tornadic activity, however a quick look analysis of parameters show any tornadoes will most likely be isolated.

TORNADO PROBABILITY

Residents under the risk area should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS statements and warnings.

SPC CURRENT WATCHES DISPLAY

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS DISPLAY

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

Elsewhere, looks like some extremely cold temperatures during the nights over the next few days over portions of the northern two thirds of the country.

GFSX MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST

Computer model output is showing a band of snowfall accumulation over the next 84 to 120 hours from Oklahoma, NEWD to New England.  The maps below should be considered preliminary, as these totals and locations could vary, depending on certain forecast parameters.

ETA 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION

GFS 120 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION

WPC INTERACTIVE SNOW MAPS

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE WARNINGS

Analysis of surface an upper air maps indicate  a clash of warm and cold air from PA., NEWD.  Albeit a strong 200 mb jet max will be in the vicinity, I don’t feel at the moment severe weather will be an issue, given the entrance and exit regions are displaced fairly far east of the trof axis, which will be of a positive tilt.

GFS 42 HOUR SURFACE / 500 MB FORECAST MAP

When I get the time, I will be working on a post tropical season analysis of the conditions we saw during the season.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

6 Responses to SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…DEC. 05, 2013…ISSUED 1:55 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, glad you are back. It looks like that real cold air is having a hard time making it all the way to the East Coast.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Do you think SE TX could see any ice storms or snow this year? We are getting pretty good cold fronts come through. They are saying our highs with be in the low 40’s through Thursday.Thanks for all your updates.

    • That will depend on where precipitation falls…most of it so far has been hanging north. You could get plenty of cold air, but maybe not much, if any snow. I’ll be watching the pattern to see what changes take shape as we get further into winter season. Well, hell, it’s not even winter yet! LOL!

  3. Greg goodman says:

    Thank you mr storm glad to see you back what do you think the winter will bring us?

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. We got down to 15 degrees below zero at KDEN. My place hit 8 below. The same is expected tonight…UGGGHH!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s