I will be out of the office today and tomorrow for Holiday Prep and the Holiday. I am leaving yesterday’s graphics and links in place, so you may track what is going on with the coastal system.
HAVE A HAPPY AND SAFE THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!
Good day everyone!
The developing coastal storm is beginning to wind up. One thing I have noticed, which is of a little bit of concern to me is, surface mapping indicates the low to be approaching the FL. area, however, I have been unable to pick this up on satellite loop imagery, which indicates a stronger secondary low over TX at the moment. This does not show in the forecast surface maps on the Global Models, and has me wondering if this low will be the one to ride up the Eastern Seaboard.
I’ll be looking at this over the next 48 hours to see what actually develops. Global models still indicate this storm to deepen to sub 990 mb as it moves NNE along the Eastern Seaboard just at or slightly west of the coast.
Over the open Atlantic, near the center of the low, eastward, sustained winds may be on the order of 50-60 mph over some areas offshore. Based on analysis of Global Models and Storm fury site, sustained winds near to 20 miles form the coast could approach minimal tropical storm force. Based on the wind and seas analysis, residents along the Eastern Seaboard should prepare for minor coastal flooding and beach erosion, along with high surf and rip currents. It is advised residents on and near the coast secure small loose items as to not wind up being blown around. Please use the links provided for surf height and winds for the East Coast, and local areas.
EAST COAST SURF HEIGHTS
EAST COAST WIND SPEEDS
GOMEX SURF HEIGHTS
GOMEX WIND SPEEDS
NEW ENGLAND SURF HEIGHTS
NEW ENGLAND WIND SPEEDS
NEW JERSEY SURF HEIGHTS
NEW JERSEY WIND SPEEDS
NC/SC SURF HEIGHTS
NC/SC WIND SPEEDS
Rain in the warm sector could be heavy, and some localized flooding can not be ruled out. The following is the NAM 72 hour precipitation total forecast.
On the western side of this system, snowfall and freezing precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours, and the following is the current computer snowfall accumulation output for the next 72 to 84 hours.
Albeit not noted by wind barbs in the forecast maps, given the tight pressure gradient, I am going out on a limb and not ruling out possible close to blizzard conditions or blizzard conditions over northern portions of the NEUS.
Residents affected by this storm should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and may use the NWS Hazards and Warnings map for local warnings and statements.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)