HAPPY THANKSGIVING…OUT OF OFFICE…NOV. 27, 2013…12:25 P.M. EST

I will be out of the office today and tomorrow for Holiday Prep and the Holiday.  I am leaving yesterday’s graphics and links in place, so you may track what is going on with the coastal system.  

HAVE A HAPPY AND SAFE THANKSGIVING EVERYONE!

Your friend,

“Storm”

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

The developing coastal storm is beginning to wind up.  One thing I have noticed, which is of a little bit of concern to me is, surface mapping indicates the low to be approaching the FL. area, however, I have been unable to pick this up on satellite loop imagery, which indicates a stronger secondary low over TX at the moment.   This does not show in the forecast surface maps on the Global Models, and has me wondering if this low will be the one to ride up the Eastern Seaboard.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES



I’ll be looking at this over the next 48 hours to see what actually develops.  Global models still indicate this storm to deepen to sub 990 mb as it moves NNE along the Eastern Seaboard just at or slightly west of the coast.

GFS

NAM

ECMWF
00zecmwf500mbHGHTNA048

CMC
00zggem500mbHGHTNA042

NAVGEM
00znavgem500mbHGHTNA042

Over the open Atlantic, near the center of the low, eastward, sustained winds may be on the order of 50-60 mph over some areas offshore.  Based on analysis of Global Models and Storm fury site, sustained winds near to 20 miles form the coast could approach minimal tropical storm force.  Based on the wind and seas analysis, residents along the Eastern Seaboard should prepare for minor coastal flooding and beach erosion, along with high surf and rip currents.  It is advised residents on and near the coast secure small loose items as to not wind up being blown around.  Please use the links provided for surf height and winds for the East Coast, and local areas.

EAST COAST SURF HEIGHTS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_wave

EAST COAST WIND SPEEDS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_wind

GOMEX SURF HEIGHTS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_wave

GOMEX WIND SPEEDS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_wind

NEW ENGLAND SURF HEIGHTS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=newengland

NEW ENGLAND WIND SPEEDS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=newengland_wind

NEW JERSEY SURF HEIGHTS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=nj

NEW JERSEY WIND SPEEDS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=nj_wind

NC/SC SURF HEIGHTS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=carolina

NC/SC WIND SPEEDS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=carolina_wind

Rain in the warm sector could be heavy, and some localized flooding can not be ruled out.  The following is the NAM 72 hour precipitation total forecast.

NAM 72 HOUR TOTAL PRECIPITATION FORECAST

On the western side of this system, snowfall and freezing precipitation is expected over the next 48 hours, and the following is the current computer snowfall accumulation output for the next 72 to 84 hours.

GFS 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

ETA 84 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

Albeit not noted by wind barbs in the forecast maps, given the tight pressure gradient, I am going out on a limb and not ruling out possible close to blizzard conditions or blizzard conditions over northern portions of the NEUS.

Residents affected by this storm should monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and may use the NWS Hazards and Warnings map for local warnings and statements.

STORM PREDICTION CENTER DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES AND MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP

INTELLICAST FROST AND FREEZE WARNINGS

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS MAP

GFS 72 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST

ETA 72 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURES FORECAST

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to HAPPY THANKSGIVING…OUT OF OFFICE…NOV. 27, 2013…12:25 P.M. EST

  1. Mike Doll says:

    Happy Thanksgiving everyone may your table be filled with food and your prayers filled with thanks. We are all blessed a little by being able to read and type on a blog with friends we have never met. Again thanks Storm for what you do!!
    Mike

  2. greg goodman says:

    HAPPY THANKSGIVING mr storm you are a blessing to all of us.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Happy Thanksgiving Storm and to all on this blog. Be Safe and God Bless.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I wish you and everyone a very happy Thanksgiving!!

  5. Ramiro says:

    HAPPY THANKSGIVIND DAY TO YOU AND YOUR FAMILY

  6. Mac says:

    Happy Thanksgiving to all. 36F here in SE La. this morning and down to the low 20’s tonight.

  7. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, have a great, and safe Holiday with your family and friends. –Here, up in Stamford CT. we did get so far, 2.80″, but not much wind, at least here, heard there was some power outages in Long Island, about 10,000 homes out. But it will turn very windy and colder tonight and tomorrow, getting down to 25-30F and no higher than 30-35F on Turkey Day. It could be windy enough to ground the Balloon floats at the Macy’s Parade down 5th Ave. The barometer is at it’s low now at 29.32″ The temp. reached 59F over night. Now down to 45F, winds switched to the West, now.– Monty and everyone who comes to visit Storm’s blog, have a wonderful and safe Thanksgiving.

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