The coastal storm for the Eastern Seaboard that has been talked about over the past few days, is beginning to materialize in the NW GOMEX. A 1008 mb low, associated with the current frontal boundary, was initialized by satellite loop overlay to be near 27.0N…95.0W at around Noon today. This low is currently moving eastward, and should begin to move more toward the NE in a few hours. I look for this low to come ashore in the extreme western FL. Panhandle near Noon tomorrow, then taking more of a NNE motion, remaining just along or just inland of the coast, deepening and becoming centered over or near the DELMARVA area very early on Wed. morning. The majority of the Global Models indicate a sub 990 mb low as it strengthens.
Analysis of various models indicate sustained winds off the Eastern Seaboard, mainly offshore, could reach 40 to possibly 50 mph in some areas. Winds of 25-35 mph are forecast for much of the GOMEX, beginning in about 18-24 hours.
Seas in the GOMEX will be running 14-16 ft, mainly south of 25 N, and west of 90.0W. Seas along the Eastern Seaboard from the NC/SC border,, could run 7-9 ft close to the coast, and 30-34 ft from 72.0W to 68.0W
Residents along the Eastern Seaboard in the areas that will be affected, should remain away from the beach and out of the water, as minor coastal flooding and beach erosion may occur from SC, northward. The combination of wind and wave heights will produce higher surf heights along these areas. Depending on actual track, snow and rain areas could vary, so at this time, I cannot rule out localized flooding closer to the coast in heavier precipitation areas.
On the backside of this system, it pretty much looks as if there will be some snowfall accumulations associated with this low.
I will be looking closer at this system, once it nears the Eastern Seaboard. IF this travels any further east, and gets centered over water, it could have the potential to become stronger.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)