DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 25, 2013…ISSUED 8:55 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good evening!

The coastal storm for the Eastern Seaboard that has been talked about over the past few days, is beginning to materialize in the NW GOMEX.  A 1008 mb low, associated with the current frontal boundary, was initialized by satellite loop overlay to be near 27.0N…95.0W at around Noon today.  This low is currently moving eastward, and should begin to move more toward the NE in a few hours.  I look for this low to come ashore in the extreme western FL. Panhandle near Noon tomorrow, then taking more of a NNE motion, remaining just along or just inland of the coast, deepening and becoming centered over or near the DELMARVA area very early on Wed. morning.  The majority of the Global Models indicate a sub 990 mb low as it strengthens.  

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP

GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT
GFS
18zgfs1000500mbthickUS024

18zgfs1000500mbthickUS045

ECMWF
12zecmwf500mbHGHTATL048

CMC
12zggem500mbHGHTATL048

UKMET
12zukmet500mbHGHTATL048

NAVGEM
12znavgem500mbHGHTATL048

Analysis of various models indicate sustained winds off the Eastern Seaboard, mainly offshore, could reach 40 to possibly 50 mph in some areas.  Winds of 25-35 mph are forecast for much of the GOMEX, beginning in about 18-24 hours.

GOMEX WINDS FORECAST

EASTERN SEABOARD WINDS FORECAST

Seas in the GOMEX will be running 14-16 ft, mainly south of 25 N, and west of 90.0W.  Seas along the Eastern Seaboard from the NC/SC border,, could run 7-9 ft close to the coast, and 30-34 ft from 72.0W to 68.0W

GOMEX SURF HEIGHTS FORECAST

EASTERN SEABOARD SURF HEIGHTS

NEW JERSEY AREA WIND SPEED AND SURF HEIGHTS FORECAST

CAROLINAS WIND SPEED AND SURF HEIGHTS FORECAST


Residents along the Eastern Seaboard in the areas that will be affected, should remain away from the beach and out of the water, as minor coastal flooding and beach erosion may occur from SC, northward.  The combination of wind and wave heights will produce higher surf heights along these areas.  Depending on actual track, snow and rain areas could vary, so at this time, I cannot rule out localized flooding closer to the coast in heavier precipitation areas.

NAM 72 HOUR ACCUMULATED PRECIPITATION FORECAST

On the backside of this system, it pretty much looks as if there will be some snowfall accumulations associated with this low.

COMPUTER MODEL SNOWFALL FORECAST

NAM SNOW FORECAST
18znam4snowUS060

NWS HAZARD AND WARNINGS MAP (CLICK ON YOUR STATE)

I will be looking closer at this system, once it nears the Eastern Seaboard.  IF this travels any further east, and gets centered over water, it could have the potential to become stronger.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to DEVELOPING COASTAL STORM FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 25, 2013…ISSUED 8:55 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. As usual…you pegged it. Had a lot of people in Texas in on this one. We had the Arctic airmass in DEN…but lacked abundant moisture from Socal system…not so lucky in Texas. I think I have this straight…you had a shallow pool of Arctic air overlapped by a warmer and more moist layer above the Arctic air. Thus…creating the abundant moisture meeting the colder air below. Bingo…ice and snow galore. Is this the same setup for the East Coast? Please correct me if I’m wrong on this…been there plenty of times. Thanks Senior Chief!!

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