COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 22, 2013…ISSUED 4:45 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

The majority of Global Models on the 12Z run still indicate a coastal / offshore storm to develop by the 26th-27th.  The GFS is presenting the strongest storm, followed by the CMC, with the ECMWF showing a weaker, and elongated low pressure area.  This begins in the extreme northern GOMEX, crossing the FL. Peninsula, and emerging off the SEUS coast on a NE track.

NCEP GFS 135 HOUR

12Z GFS
12zgfs500mbHGHTATL120

12zgfs500mbHGHTATL132

12zgfs500mbHGHTATL138

CMC
00zggem500mbHGHTATL132

ECMWF
00zecmwf500mbHGHTATL144

Wind, wave and surf maps indicate tropical storm force conditions in some areas, especially offshore as this system passes.  This could pose a potential for possible minor coastal flooding and beach erosion in some places.  The tight pressure gradient inland and to the north, could produce blizzard conditions over any areas that may receive precipitation, which appears to be closer toward the coast and limited.

EAST COAST WAVE HEIGHTS

EAST COAST WIND VELOCITY

EAST COAST SURF HEIGHT

LOCAL WIND, WAVE MAPS

WAVE

WIND

I will be monitoring this next week for model consistency as far as deepening and track.

Please utilize the maps during the weekend for your convenience and update information.  As always, all maps are linked for you to click on and receive updated information.

GFS 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

ETA 72 HOUR SNOWFALL ACCUMULATION FORECAST

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE MAP

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR (SIR)

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS MAP

GFS 72 HOUR NIGHT TIME MINIMUM TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK

GFS 72 HOUR PRECIPITATION FORECAST


NAM 72 HOUR NIGHT TIME MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST


NAM 72 HOUR PRECIPITATION FORECAST

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to COASTAL STORM DEVELOPMENT / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 22, 2013…ISSUED 4:45 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, this morning at 8am was 38F and sunny, Sunday morning should be around 28F, and by Monday morning, around 18F!.Should be real windy on Sunday too. Will be watching the mid-week storm. I am supposed to drive people to the airport on Wed. morning, I bet their flight will be delayed. And have a good weekend too, Storm, Monty , TexasHurricane and all.

    • originallt says:

      Edit: Actually got down to 21F on Sunday morning–much colder than forecast here in Stamford CT. –It is windy too, as forecast, NW winds 15-25mph., with higher gusts.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm. They are saying a high of 39 here for Monday where I am in SE TX….That is cold for this time of year here. I wonder how January will be…that is when it usually gets it’s coldest here. Usually upper 40’s to 50’s for highs.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. That could be a beauty for the NEUS. We’ve got quite an upper level low out West as well…looks to stay South of DEN. But…plenty of people to update…all weekend…damn slow mover. Have a great weekend Storm and all!!

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