TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 14, 2013…ISSUED 10:50 EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

An area of thunderstorm and shower activity is located in the extreme southern Caribbean Sea, just to the east of Nicaragua.  Upper level winds are not conducive, and development is not expected.  None of the Global Models indicate any development over the next 7 – 10 days.  The CMC and NAVGEM do indicate a baroclinic low to develop well SE of Bermuda in about 10-14 days, and move off toward the NE.  

WATL SATELLITE LOOP

Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7 days.

The SPC, Norman OK. has indicate a probability of severe weather in the DAY 4 Convective Outlook:

SPC DAY 4 SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK

From the outlook text:

DISCUSSION… SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS…BUT TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

Analysis of Global Models this morning tend to indicate a better than average possibility of this outbreak occurring, based on current information regarding a 500 mb Jetstreak, 200 mb Jetstreak, and wind shear.  In addition, this weather will be associated with a negative tilt trof which will enhance this probability.  I will continue to monitor severe weather parameters over the next 48 hours for any significant changes in either direction, and will have a more complete update as this probability becomes the Day 1 Outlook.

It appears we have a little break in snowfall activity over the next 48 hours for the eastern half of the U.S.

GFS / ETA 48 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL FORECAST

Forecast minimum temperatures are still slated to be quite cold over much of the U.S., but begin to recover nicely for the eastern half beginning Saturday, with a surge of warmer temperatures extending all the way into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region by Sunday.

GFS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

NAM MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

INTELLICAST FROST / FREEZE WARNINGS

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR

 

NWS WATCHES, WARNINGS, AND HAZARDS MAP (CLICK ON YOUR STATE)

As of this morning, model information, combined with the current NAO and AO forecasts indicates another cold blast toward the end of the month.  This will be monitored for any changes, seeing it is 2 weeks out in the forecast.

WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL PRODUCTS

SEA HEIGHT

SURF HEIGHT

WIND VELOCITY

EAST COAST PRODUCTS (SEA, SURF, WIND)



Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Severe Weather, Tropical Synopsis, Winter. Bookmark the permalink.

4 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / SEVERE WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 14, 2013…ISSUED 10:50 EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm . Well, I guess we can “stick a fork” in the 2013 hurricane season, it looks to be done!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Another boring day in the Tropics…imagine that. It looks like the only person I have in the Severe WX area is in STL…and he is in DEN for Medical Residency for school. We have a system coming in Sunday…models not showing anything significant though. Thanks always for your synopsis Storm!!

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s