Good day everyone!
An area of thunderstorm and shower activity is located in the extreme southern Caribbean Sea, just to the east of Nicaragua. Upper level winds are not conducive, and development is not expected. None of the Global Models indicate any development over the next 7 – 10 days. The CMC and NAVGEM do indicate a baroclinic low to develop well SE of Bermuda in about 10-14 days, and move off toward the NE.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected over the next 7 days.
The SPC, Norman OK. has indicate a probability of severe weather in the DAY 4 Convective Outlook:
From the outlook text:
DISCUSSION… SOME UNCERTAINTY LINGERS…BUT TRENDS IN THE MEDIUM RANGE FORECAST GUIDANCE ARE INCREASINGLY SUGGESTIVE OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF AN OUTBREAK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY EASTWARD THROUGH MUCH OF THE OHIO VALLEY ON SUNDAY.
Analysis of Global Models this morning tend to indicate a better than average possibility of this outbreak occurring, based on current information regarding a 500 mb Jetstreak, 200 mb Jetstreak, and wind shear. In addition, this weather will be associated with a negative tilt trof which will enhance this probability. I will continue to monitor severe weather parameters over the next 48 hours for any significant changes in either direction, and will have a more complete update as this probability becomes the Day 1 Outlook.
It appears we have a little break in snowfall activity over the next 48 hours for the eastern half of the U.S.
Forecast minimum temperatures are still slated to be quite cold over much of the U.S., but begin to recover nicely for the eastern half beginning Saturday, with a surge of warmer temperatures extending all the way into the Ohio Valley and Great Lakes region by Sunday.
As of this morning, model information, combined with the current NAO and AO forecasts indicates another cold blast toward the end of the month. This will be monitored for any changes, seeing it is 2 weeks out in the forecast.
WAVEWATCH 3 MODEL PRODUCTS
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)