HAPPY VETERANS DAY EVERYONE!
The tropics remain quiet this afternoon. Analysis of satellite imagery doesn’t show anything of real interest to follow.
Analysis of Global Models this morning do not indicate any development, and Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 4 – 5 days.
Elsewhere, most of the GOMEX and portions of the Eastern Seaboard can expect winds near the coast and offshore on the order of 30-35 knots as the approaching cold front passes. This will be attributed to the extremely strong High Pressure area building behind the front. Models indicate this high to range anywhere from 1036 mb to 1040 mb (30.59 in – 30.71 in.). The tight pressure gradient with this high will be responsible for NNE winds shifting to ENE over the next 48 hours. Seas could run as high as 12 – 14 ft offshore, and 6 – 9 ft closer to the coast. This could allow for some beach erosion along portions of the Eastern Seaboard, and possibly portions of extreme south Texas coastal waters, and along the Mexican coast. Surf conditions could be higher. The following maps are from the current WAVEWATCH 3 model run. Boaters in the affected areas should remain in port, and beach-goers should remain onshore, as rip currents will most likely be present. The high is forecast to continue sliding ESE and weakening during the 48-72 hour period in the forecast from 06Z.
Along with the FROPA will come much colder temperatures, with freezing temperatures extending into portions of the deep south by Wed. Areas behind the pink line could experience freezing to below freezing minimum temperatures, with areas behind the orange line experiencing minimum temperatures in the teens.
All of the following maps can be clicked on for closer views and information.
WAVEWATCH 3 WIND, WAVE, AND SURF FORECAST
EAST COAST LINKS
LOCAL WAVE MODELS
HAVE A BLESSED DAY!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)