TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS NOV. 11, 2013…ISSUED 1:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

HAPPY VETERANS DAY EVERYONE!

The tropics remain quiet this afternoon.  Analysis of satellite imagery doesn’t show anything of real interest to follow.

ATLANTIC WIDE VIEW SATELLITE LOOP

Analysis of Global Models this morning do not indicate any development, and Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 4  – 5 days.

Elsewhere, most of the GOMEX and portions of the Eastern Seaboard can expect winds near the coast and offshore on the order of 30-35 knots as the approaching cold front passes.  This will be attributed to the extremely strong High Pressure area building behind the front.  Models indicate this high to range anywhere from 1036 mb to 1040 mb (30.59 in – 30.71 in.).  The tight pressure gradient with this high will be responsible for NNE winds shifting to ENE over the next 48 hours.  Seas could run as high as 12 – 14 ft offshore, and 6 – 9 ft closer to the coast.  This could allow for some beach erosion along portions of the Eastern Seaboard, and possibly portions of extreme south Texas coastal waters, and along the Mexican coast.  Surf conditions could be higher.  The following maps are from the current WAVEWATCH 3 model run.  Boaters in the affected areas should remain in port, and beach-goers should remain onshore, as rip currents will most likely be present.  The high is forecast to continue sliding ESE and weakening during the 48-72 hour period in the forecast from 06Z.

Along with the FROPA will come much colder temperatures, with freezing temperatures extending into portions of the deep south by Wed. Areas behind the pink line could experience freezing to below freezing minimum temperatures,  with areas behind the orange line experiencing minimum temperatures in the teens.

GFS 850 MB TEMPERATURES
gfs_namer_045_850_temp_mslp_precip

All of the following maps can be clicked on for closer views and information.

GFS SNOWFALL 48 HOUR FORECAST

ETA SNOWFALL 48 HOUR FORECAST

INTELLICAST 48 HOUR SNOWFALL FORECAST

INTELLICAST FROST AND FREEZE OUTLOOK

ADDS (Aviation Digital Data Service) 54 HOUR FORECAST

GFS 72 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

NAM 72 HOUR MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST

WAVEWATCH 3 WIND,  WAVE, AND SURF FORECAST

GOMEX LINKS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_height

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_wind

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=gom_wave

EAST COAST LINKS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_height

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_wind

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=eus_wave

LOCAL WAVE MODELS
http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=carolina_sea

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=carolina

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=jax_sea

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=jax

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=cb_sea

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=cb

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=rr_sea

http://www.stormsurfing.com/cgi/display.cgi?a=rr

NWS HAZARDS AND WARNINGS MAP

INTELLICAST DOPPLER RADAR

HAVE A BLESSED DAY!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / WINTER WEATHER SYNOPSIS NOV. 11, 2013…ISSUED 1:30 P.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Greg goodman says:

    Happy veteran day. Mr storm thank you forserving our country

  2. Mac says:

    Hope you and all my fellow Vets had a great Veteran’s Day Senior Chief! Looking like we’ll have frost on the pumpkin over here on the North Shore tonight and tomorrow night. (about 40 miles due North of New Orleans)

  3. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm do you think we in south Alabama might have a cold winter

  4. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for the update Storm! I think the Hurricane season is over….Moving on to winter. Do you think us in SE TX could have a really cold winter this year? Maybe even snow? Happy Veterans Day!

  5. originallt says:

    Hi Storm, I echo what Monty says about your service and all who have served in our armed forces.–And who are are still serving and protecting us as we speak.

  6. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. We’ve got a front backdooring us. Hopefully…the bulk of the Arctic air stays East of DEN. I hope you are having a fantastic Veterans Day!!!!! Happy Veterans day to all of the brave men and women who have and are serving!!!!!

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