TROPICAL WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…NOV. 06, 2013…ISSUED 11:20 EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

The tropics are quiet this morning.  Shower activity noted over the Eastern GOMEX and Yucatan Channel are associated with an upper level low.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The only model at the moment showing development is the GFS at the end of the forecast period, with a Tropical Depression in the extreme south Caribbean.

GFS 384 HOUR FORECAST
06zgfs500mbHGHTATL384

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 96-120 hours.

The following is the Computer Output forecast for accumulated snowfall during the next 48 hours.

GFS

ETA/NAM

The following are projected minimum nighttime temperatures from the GFS and NAM models.

GFS

NAM

Analysis of the current GFS 100-500 MB thickness and 6 hour precip map indicates at the moment, near freezing to freezing temperatures extending into VA in about 6-7 days from today.  This will most likely be revised as we get further into the forecast period.

GFS

Analysis of extended range surface maps indicates there are no coastal storms forecast over the next 5-10 days.

DOPPLER RADAR 

OBSERVED SNOW COVER

48 HOUR SNOW FORECAST

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / WINTER WEATHER OUTLOOK SYNOPSIS…NOV. 06, 2013…ISSUED 11:20 EST…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Wow, a huge Super Typhoon is about to strike the Central Philippines, with 190mph sustained winds and gusts up to 230mph. Pray for those people .

    • Monty says:

      I hear ya LT. They are comparing this to Hurricane Andrew. If I’m not mistaken…the 1935 Labor Day Hurricane that hit the Florida Keys which literally sandblasted the skin off people or Hurricane Camille (which I had the pleasure of being in) has to rank closer than Andrew. The winds with the Super Typhoon are estimated at 195 mph…gusts to 235 mph…not sure what the 1935 cyclone or Camille’s final totals were (200 mph est.)…but this has to rank at the top of the list. Many prayers go out to the people in the Philippines.
      The radar images are horrifying. Storm…you probably have the data to back up the top tropical cyclones. This one has got to be close to the top…if not #1…over 1935 Labor Day Hurricane or Camille??

      • The strongest tropical cyclone of the 1935 Atlantic hurricane season, which would prove to be the third most intense Atlantic hurricane on record, had very modest beginnings. It formed from a slow-moving, weak disturbance east of the Bahamas on or around August 28, 1935. On 31 August, the U.S. Weather Bureau issued its first storm advisory . The report indicated that a tropical system of small size but noteworthy strength existed about 95 km (60 mi) east of Long Island, Bahamas. The depression encountered the Great Bahama Bank later that day where warm, shallow waters combined with the storm’s slow movement, allowed it to intensify quickly. Early on 1 September, the depression reached hurricane status and continued to strengthen as it made its way through the warm waters of the Gulf Stream.

        Men standing near 20 or more stacked boxes, which happen to be coffins
        The Labor Day Hurricane caused massive amounts of destruction and had a fairly high death toll. This image shows men standing near a large stack of coffins during the cleanup following the storm. Source: Florida State Archives
        On September 2, 1935, Labor Day, the hurricane reached a peak intensity of 892 mb. The hurricane made landfall later that night as a Category 5 storm, crossing the Florida Keys between Key West and Miami, FL. As it made landfall, the hurricane delivered maximum sustained winds of approximately 298 km/h (185 mph).

        Hurricane Camille 1969

        Click here for a larger image of CamilleThis powerful, deadly, and destructive hurricane formed just west of the Cayman Islands on August 14. It rapidly intensified and by the time it reached western Cuba the next day it was a Category 3 hurricane. Camille tracked north-northwestward across the Gulf of Mexico and became a Category 5 hurricane on August 16. The hurricane maintained this intensity until it made landfall along the Mississippi coast late on the 17th. Camille weakened to a tropical depression as it crossed Mississippi into western Tennessee and Kentucky, then it turned eastward across West Virginia and Virginia. The cyclone moved into the Atlantic on August 20 and regained tropical storm strength before becoming extratropical on the 22nd.

        A minimum pressure of 26.84 inches was reported in Bay St. Louis, Mississippi, which makes Camille the second most intense hurricane of record to hit the United States. The actual maximum sustained winds will never be known, as the hurricane destroyed all the wind-recording instruments in the landfall area. The estimates at the coast are near 200 mph. Columbia, Mississippi, located 75 miles inland, reported 120 mph sustained winds. A storm tide of 24.6 ft occurred at Pass Christian, Mississippi. The heaviest rains along the Gulf Coast were about 10 inches. However, as Camille passed over the Virginias, it produced a burst of 12 to 20 inch rains with local totals of up to 31 inches. Most of this rain occurred in 3 to 5 hours and caused catastrophic flash flooding.

        The combination of winds, surges, and rainfalls caused 256 deaths (143 on the Gulf Coast and 113 in the Virginia floods) and $1.421 billion in damage. Three deaths were reported in Cuba.

        FROM WeatherUnderground:
        Camille’s 190 mph sustained winds at landfall were the highest winds ever recorded for a U.S. landfalling hurricane.

        In comparison:

        Wilma’s
        lowest pressure of 882 mb and highest sustained winds of 175 mph occurred on October 19
        southeast of the Yucatán Peninsula.

        Did Hurricane Wilma have 209 mph sustained winds?
        By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:00 PM GMT on April 28, 2012 +51
        At last week’s 30th Conference on Hurricanes and Tropical Meteorology of the American Meteorological Society, Dr. Eric Uhlhorn of NOAA’s Hurricane Research Division presented a poster that looked at the relationship between surface winds measured by the SFMR instrument and flight-level winds in two Category 5 storms. Hurricane Hunter flights done into Category 5 Supertyphoon Megi (17 October 2010) and Category 5 Hurricane Felix (03 September 2007) found that the surface winds measured by SFMR were greater than those measured at flight level (10,000 feet.) Usually, surface winds in a hurricane are 10 – 15% less than at 10,000 feet, but he showed that in super-intense Category 5 storms with small eyes, the dynamics of these situations may generate surface winds that are as strong or stronger than those found at 10,000 feet. He extrapolated this statistical relationship (using the inertial stability measured at flight level) to Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which was the strongest hurricane on record (882 mb), but was not observed by the SFMR. He estimated that the maximum wind averaged around the eyewall in Wilma at peak intensity could have been 209 mph, plus or minus 20 mph–so conceivably as high as 229 mph, with gusts to 270 mph.

        • Monty says:

          Wow!! I didn’t know Wilma was that intense…thought 175 was max. Yeah…the dreaded “pinhole” eyewall I believe??

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, maybe the winter time storms will be more “fun” than this past tropical season! Actually being so quiet is good, less death and destruction, at least for us here in the states.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like the season will tease us until the end. Thanks always for the winter graphics!!

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