TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST / WINTER PRECIPITATION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 05, 2013…ISSUED 9:45 A.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good morning everyone!

Shower and thunderstorm activity in the Central Caribbean has pretty much dissipated, with lingering activity near the coast of Cuba and Hispaniola.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Albeit wind shear values have diminished and range 10-15 knots over the area, the flow of the upper level anticyclone is spiraling “in” on itself, thereby negating upper divergence.  Although the current shear forecast still indicates for upper level winds to become more  conducive during the next 24 hours, and pretty much keep the Caribbean under favorable upper level conditions over the next 4 days, an increase in dry air has pretty much put a damper on development.  There just isn’t enough moisture for these favorable conditions to work with.

This could very well be the last “possible” chance for any development for the season, save any stalled frontal development, as we are now beginning to lose the weak upward motion phase of the MJO, as it departs Octant 1, moving closer toward the Indian Ocean.  Based on this, I will be monitoring the tropics, but will only update on the tropics if anything occurs.

MJO REALTIME MULTIVARIATE INDEX

The following Computer Model maps indicate probable snowfall accumulations during the next 48-72 hours.

GFS 72 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL

NAM 72 HOUR ACCUMULATED SNOWFALL

INTELLICAST OBSERVED SNOWFALL

INTELLICAST 48 HOUR SNOWFALL FORECAST

INTELLICAST NWS DOPPLER RADAR (SNOW, ICE, RAIN)

Analysis of models this a.m. indicate snowfall for portions of northern Idaho, and most of Montana during the next 96 hours.

GFS 96 HOUR FORECAST MAP

CONUS MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST GFS/NAM

On a side note, if you require a personal forecast, let me know and I will try to work on it late afternoon, and have it for you in the evening or the next afternoon.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST / WINTER PRECIPITATION FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 05, 2013…ISSUED 9:45 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Scott says:

    Thanks for the work this summer! Glad we did not have anything too bad to deal with this year in NW Florida.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Another sheep in wolves clothing…imagine that…kind of like our system…seems like downsloping will prevent any snowfall in and around DEN…fine by me. I echo LT…thanks for keeping us one step ahead of the NHC!!

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks so much for your diligence this “past” hurricane season. I guess it’s onwards towards winter time storms and coastal lows. Mother nature has a way of evening things out, so I will not be surprised if next year is more active, just a “hunch”!

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