Good morning everyone!
Shower and thunderstorm activity in the Central Caribbean has pretty much dissipated, with lingering activity near the coast of Cuba and Hispaniola.
Albeit wind shear values have diminished and range 10-15 knots over the area, the flow of the upper level anticyclone is spiraling “in” on itself, thereby negating upper divergence. Although the current shear forecast still indicates for upper level winds to become more conducive during the next 24 hours, and pretty much keep the Caribbean under favorable upper level conditions over the next 4 days, an increase in dry air has pretty much put a damper on development. There just isn’t enough moisture for these favorable conditions to work with.
This could very well be the last “possible” chance for any development for the season, save any stalled frontal development, as we are now beginning to lose the weak upward motion phase of the MJO, as it departs Octant 1, moving closer toward the Indian Ocean. Based on this, I will be monitoring the tropics, but will only update on the tropics if anything occurs.
The following Computer Model maps indicate probable snowfall accumulations during the next 48-72 hours.
Analysis of models this a.m. indicate snowfall for portions of northern Idaho, and most of Montana during the next 96 hours.
On a side note, if you require a personal forecast, let me know and I will try to work on it late afternoon, and have it for you in the evening or the next afternoon.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)