Good day everyone!
Analysis of Global Models again this morning really doesn’t indicate any development over the next 4-5 days over the Caribbean Sea, and based on the MJO forecast this morning, the probability for any development may be decreasing over the next 3 days.
HFIP TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS MODELING (CLICK FOR FULL IMAGES)
However, analysis of vorticity maps of the 925 mb and 850 mb level indicates vorticity below the mid levels of the atmosphere, closer to the surface, albeit not have worked fully down to the surface at the moment.
Analysis of lower level steering, along with Visible and RGB satellite loop imagery does indicate a broad low level circulation, south of the western tip of Haiti centered near Latitude 15.6N, Longitude 74.4W. The last couple of frames in the loop imagery show a small thunderstorm flaring up near this position.
Using this satellite imagery, click on the button for ANIMATION, select 6 in the image loop box, go to the ZOOM FACTOR and choose MEDIUM. Then, click on the thunderstorm near the position mentioned above. This will allow you an excellent view of the circulation.
At the moment, my thought is, without any sustained convection, this area most likely will not develop. However if this flareup of convection builds and leads to further moistening of the atmosphere, and if a convective trend begins, we could possibly see further development as other than for the presence of some dry air, sst’s and upper level winds are very conducive at the moment for development. The upper level anticyclone that the GFS wind shear forecast has been calling for over the past 4-5 days has materialized, and I have both the real time full image, and an outlined image of the area. The current wind shear forecast still indicates this upper level feature will remain over the area, moving slowly toward the west over the next 24-36 hours. This would prove favorable for any sustained convection if it materializes. I have this area outlined as well, as 4 frames of the wind shear loop showing progress the upper level anticyclone.
I am going to continue to monitor this area for any significant changes over the next 48-72 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)