DISTURBED WEATHER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 04, 2013..ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good day everyone!

Analysis of Global Models again this morning really doesn’t indicate any development over the next 4-5 days over the Caribbean Sea, and based on the MJO forecast this morning, the probability for any development may be decreasing over the next 3 days.

HFIP TROPICAL CYCLONE GENESIS MODELING (CLICK FOR FULL IMAGES)

FIM8

FIM9

ECMWF

GFS

UKMET

CMC

However, analysis of vorticity maps of the 925 mb and 850 mb level indicates vorticity below the mid levels of the atmosphere, closer to the surface, albeit not have worked fully down to the surface at the moment.

925 MB VORTICITY

850 MB VORTICITY

Analysis of lower level steering, along with Visible and RGB satellite loop imagery does indicate a broad low level circulation, south of the western tip of Haiti centered near Latitude 15.6N, Longitude 74.4W.  The last couple of frames in the loop imagery show a small thunderstorm flaring up near this position.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY (AVN, VIS, RGB)

LOW LEVEL STEERING

Using this satellite imagery, click on the button for ANIMATION, select 6 in the image loop box, go to the ZOOM FACTOR and choose MEDIUM.  Then, click on  the thunderstorm near the position mentioned above.  This will allow you an excellent view of the circulation.

NASA INTERACTIVE SATELLITE

At the moment, my thought is, without any sustained convection, this area most likely will not develop.  However if this flareup of convection builds and leads to further moistening of the atmosphere, and if a convective trend begins, we could possibly see further development as other than for the presence of some dry air, sst’s and upper level winds are very conducive at the moment for development.  The upper level anticyclone that the GFS wind shear forecast has been calling for over the  past 4-5 days has materialized, and I have both the real time full image, and an outlined image of the area.  The current wind shear forecast still indicates this upper level feature will remain over the area, moving slowly toward the west over the next 24-36 hours.  This would prove favorable for any sustained convection if it materializes.  I have this area outlined as well, as 4 frames of the wind shear loop showing progress the upper level anticyclone.

CURRENT WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS

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GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST
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The NCEP EMC modeling indicates a medium chance for development in this area over the next 5 days.

I am going to continue to monitor this area for any significant changes over the next 48-72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to DISTURBED WEATHER CENTRAL CARIBBEAN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…NOV. 04, 2013..ISSUED 11:30 A.M. EST…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…guess the NHC has been paying attention to you as they give it a low chance. We’re getting ready for our next storm…not looking like much other than a bunch of cold air…maybe an inch or two accumulation.

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