TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GOMEX, CARIBBEAN, AND ATLANTIC…NOV. 01, 2013…ISSUED 5:10 P.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

FALL BACK TIME

Good afternoon everyone!  Thanks for your patience.

There has been little to no change with the weather in the southern Caribbean Sea, and wind shear is still prevalent over the area due to a TUTT in the central Caribbean at the moment, which is evident in satellite loop imagery, especially water vapor.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Once again, the only model indicating development is the CMC GGEM, which indicates a split of 2 lows now, with the much weaker forming in the western Caribbean and moving inland over Mexico in a few days.  The second, which the CMC initiates development north of the Caribbean showing a tropical storm, brings it across Cuba into the Caribbean, then eventually across the Yucatan Peninsula, then into the GOMEX toward S. Texas.

CMC GGEM
12zggem500mbHGHTATL150

12zggem500mbHGHTATL204

12zggem500mbHGHTATL240

Right now, without other model support, I am very skeptical of a strong tropical storm and where the CMC originates it, however based on the persistent forecast of favorable parameters (i.e. MJO, upper level winds, TUTT backing away, warm sst’s) I cannot totally rule out some type of development in the Caribbean Sea over the next 4-5 days.  Also, based on analysis of the updated forecast steering layers maps, valid for 00Z this evening, a path much like depicted by the CMC could occur if something develops.

The current MJO index, and MJO itself are now in Octant 8, or Phase 8, and is forecast to move into Phase 1 within the next 4 days.  If nothing initiates by then, or shortly after, this may be the last chance for the season as the MJO continues eastward after that.  As of yesterday, the MJO Upward motion phase was in our basin, as shown in green on the 200 mb IR Velocity Potential Map.

MJO MULTIVARIATE INDEX

200 MB IR VELOCITY POTENTIAL

As stated, upper level winds are still not conducive for any tropical development at the moment, however the GFS wind shear forecast HAS NOT CHANGED for the past 3-4 days, calling for upper level winds to become more favorable in about 24-36 hours, beginning in the eastern Caribbean, and shifting west to the W. Caribbean and Yucatan Channel area over the next 5-6 days.

An increase of vorticity has been noted as well over the past 24 hours at the 925 mb level at various locations in the Caribbean.

925 MB VORTICITY

I will continue to monitor the Caribbean Sea during the next 96 hours for any significant changes or signs of development.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS FOR THE GOMEX, CARIBBEAN, AND ATLANTIC…NOV. 01, 2013…ISSUED 5:10 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Thanks Storm. We never give up the thought that something will happen in the GOMEX, even in mid-winter, but we realize that it may well be over for the year!!!! Thanks for pulling us through!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I guess it’s now or never. Should this system materialize…could SAT/SJT be affected?

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