CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE / SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 28, 2013…ISSUED 10:50 A.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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FALL BACK TIME

Good day everyone!

The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave I have been monitoring in the CATL continues to be sheared this morning, due to 35 knots of NW shear over the area.  The wave is currently moving toward the west at around 20-25 mph.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

There has been no major change  in the current wind shear forecast in that upper level winds should become conducive for development in and near the central Caribbean Sea in about 4.5 – 5 days.  With that being said, given the state of the wave, and forward motion of 20-25 mph, I am very skeptical at the moment of this developing, as it should reach the central Caribbean within the next 36-42 hours, although I will be keeping tabs on it.

 Analysis of global models this morning indicate the earliest development may take shape in about 120-144 hours as depicted by the NAVGEM model, which develops a tropical storm, followed by the FIM Experimental indicating development south of Hispaniola in about 150 hours.

NAVGEM
00znavgem500mbHGHTATL144

FIM

The CMC GGEM is next in line in developing a minimal tropical storm from a depression, north of Hispaniola and then into the Bahamas at 186 hours out in the forecast period from 00Z yesterday evening, followed by the GFS Operational model at 336  hours out in the forecast period from 06Z.

CMC GGEM
00zggem500mbHGHTATL186

GFS
06zgfs500mbHGHTATL336

Based on this analysis, it appears obvious the models are bring something else in from the ATL or E. Caribbean and developing it. This cannot be ruled out given that this is the second day models have latched on to something, along with a combination of favorable upper level winds forecast in the Caribbean.  I do have to question the CMC GGEM solution however, as upper level winds are forecast to remain hostile north of the islands.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 96 hours.

The SPC in Norman OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for a portion of Kansas today.

SPC DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK

Analysis of severe weather parameters agrees with the SPC probs of the main threat being damaging straight line winds and hail.  However, analysis of various models from F5 Data Severe Weather Software leads me not to rule out a threat of severe weather extended into portions of western OK., and possibly northern portions of the TX Panhandle, as the software output seems to target those areas which I have outlined in red.

day1otlk_1300

SPC CONVECTIVE WATCHES MAP

SPC MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS

NWS WARNINGS AND STATEMENTS MAP (CLICK ON YOUR STATE)

The ongoing severe weather threat is forecast to remain through Thursday, when the possibility of some isolated strong tornadoes could occur.  I will be monitoring this situation as the week progresses.

SPC OUTLOOK MAPS

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to CENTRAL ATLANTIC TROPICAL WAVE / SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 28, 2013…ISSUED 10:50 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like SPC has DFW in sights for day 3…close to MAF on day 2…will advise the gang. Barring some catastrophic event…this has to go down as one of the most jacked up seasons in ATL/GOMEX history?? Oh well.

    • Yeah, it has been very, very strange. Even with the cooling of sst anomalies in the MDR during most of the summer, with ENSO signals at neutral for both the ocean and atmosphere, we should have definitely seen something different.

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for the update Storm! 🙂

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