Good day everyone!
The area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave I have been monitoring in the CATL continues to be sheared this morning, due to 35 knots of NW shear over the area. The wave is currently moving toward the west at around 20-25 mph.
There has been no major change in the current wind shear forecast in that upper level winds should become conducive for development in and near the central Caribbean Sea in about 4.5 – 5 days. With that being said, given the state of the wave, and forward motion of 20-25 mph, I am very skeptical at the moment of this developing, as it should reach the central Caribbean within the next 36-42 hours, although I will be keeping tabs on it.
Analysis of global models this morning indicate the earliest development may take shape in about 120-144 hours as depicted by the NAVGEM model, which develops a tropical storm, followed by the FIM Experimental indicating development south of Hispaniola in about 150 hours.
The CMC GGEM is next in line in developing a minimal tropical storm from a depression, north of Hispaniola and then into the Bahamas at 186 hours out in the forecast period from 00Z yesterday evening, followed by the GFS Operational model at 336 hours out in the forecast period from 06Z.
Based on this analysis, it appears obvious the models are bring something else in from the ATL or E. Caribbean and developing it. This cannot be ruled out given that this is the second day models have latched on to something, along with a combination of favorable upper level winds forecast in the Caribbean. I do have to question the CMC GGEM solution however, as upper level winds are forecast to remain hostile north of the islands.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 96 hours.
The SPC in Norman OK. has issued a SLIGHT risk of severe weather for a portion of Kansas today.
Analysis of severe weather parameters agrees with the SPC probs of the main threat being damaging straight line winds and hail. However, analysis of various models from F5 Data Severe Weather Software leads me not to rule out a threat of severe weather extended into portions of western OK., and possibly northern portions of the TX Panhandle, as the software output seems to target those areas which I have outlined in red.
The ongoing severe weather threat is forecast to remain through Thursday, when the possibility of some isolated strong tornadoes could occur. I will be monitoring this situation as the week progresses.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)