TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 27, 2013…ISSUED 7:05 P.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good evening everyone!

The area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic has  become less organized during the day, due to 25-30 knots of NWLY wind shear.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The most recent update available on the wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds to remain non conducive for further development during the next 5 days, however if this area does not become totally obliterated, we could begin to see some development from this when it reaches the central Caribbean, as upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive, then favorable in the Caribbean starting at day 6.  Albeit the 2 most accurate operational models, GFS and ECMWF do not really indicate development, with the exception of the GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE showing a weak closed low, or depression, other model guidance have pretty much come into agreement (CMC GGEM,  NAVGEM, and FIM) between a Tropical Storm or Hurricane in the Caribbean within the next 7-9 days.

GFS
12zgfs500mbHGHTATL264

GFS ENSEMBLE
12zgfsens500mbHGHTATL264

CMC GGEM
12zggem500mbHGHTATL216

NAVGEM
navgem

FIM

Analysis of a couple other global models indicates upper level winds may be favorable over the central and extreme western Caribbean during this time.  At the moment, based on a blend, or consensus of the models if you will, I am opting for the possibility of a Tropical Storm at the moment, until we get closer to the time when this may enter the central Caribbean.  This time frame in the forecast period also coincides with the possible upward motion phase of the MJO, which both the GFS and ECMWF modeling have become more consistent in showing this.

I will continue to monitor this area during the next 5 days for any significant changes.  Interests in the Caribbean that have access to this site, should monitor the site closely for any updates.

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 96 hours.

Looks like the threat of Severe Weather over the next 4 days. Mon. and Tue have had a SLIGHT risk designated.

SPC SEVERE WEATHER FORECAST MAPS

Wednesday and Thursday maps designate a probability of Severe Weather occurring.  I will address Day 4 (Wed.) briefly.

Preliminary indications are that should any tornadic activity occur within the DAY 4 probability area, it should be limited to a narrow corridor which I have outlined in black.  Of course as we get closer toward the DAY 4 prog., this could most likely change.  Based on analysis this afternoon of F5 DATA Severe Weather forecasting software, IF parameters don’t change, I cannot rule out an extension SWWD into Texas.  I will be monitoring this over the next 48-72 hours.

DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK MAP

day48prob

Have a blessed evening.

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 27, 2013…ISSUED 7:05 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Wow…it’s cat and mouse in the Tropics again…imagine that…appreciate the info on SPC forecast…wouldn’t even have thought to have checked. I’ve got people in the risk areas…definitely appreciate it Storm!!

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