Good evening everyone!
The area of disturbed weather in the central Atlantic has become less organized during the day, due to 25-30 knots of NWLY wind shear.
The most recent update available on the wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds to remain non conducive for further development during the next 5 days, however if this area does not become totally obliterated, we could begin to see some development from this when it reaches the central Caribbean, as upper level winds are forecast to become more conducive, then favorable in the Caribbean starting at day 6. Albeit the 2 most accurate operational models, GFS and ECMWF do not really indicate development, with the exception of the GFS/GFS ENSEMBLE showing a weak closed low, or depression, other model guidance have pretty much come into agreement (CMC GGEM, NAVGEM, and FIM) between a Tropical Storm or Hurricane in the Caribbean within the next 7-9 days.
Analysis of a couple other global models indicates upper level winds may be favorable over the central and extreme western Caribbean during this time. At the moment, based on a blend, or consensus of the models if you will, I am opting for the possibility of a Tropical Storm at the moment, until we get closer to the time when this may enter the central Caribbean. This time frame in the forecast period also coincides with the possible upward motion phase of the MJO, which both the GFS and ECMWF modeling have become more consistent in showing this.
I will continue to monitor this area during the next 5 days for any significant changes. Interests in the Caribbean that have access to this site, should monitor the site closely for any updates.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 96 hours.
Looks like the threat of Severe Weather over the next 4 days. Mon. and Tue have had a SLIGHT risk designated.
Wednesday and Thursday maps designate a probability of Severe Weather occurring. I will address Day 4 (Wed.) briefly.
Preliminary indications are that should any tornadic activity occur within the DAY 4 probability area, it should be limited to a narrow corridor which I have outlined in black. Of course as we get closer toward the DAY 4 prog., this could most likely change. Based on analysis this afternoon of F5 DATA Severe Weather forecasting software, IF parameters don’t change, I cannot rule out an extension SWWD into Texas. I will be monitoring this over the next 48-72 hours.
Have a blessed evening.
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)