TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SNOWFALL PROBABILITY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 24, 2013…ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good day everyone!

The area of convection in the extreme southern BOC has inched closer to land overnight.  

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Current wind shear values are still roughly 30 knots over the area, and the wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds will remain non conducive over the next 72-96 hours.  Satellite imagery does tend to indicate a circulation is trying to form, however the only way I would expect to see ANY organization of this, is if the associated stationary front breaks down, the front clears, and leaves this piece of energy behind.  With total passage of the front, wind shear could relax.

Elsewhere, pretty quiet out in the tropics this morning.  I’m still going to monitor the Caribbean with the forecast upward motion of the MJO entering our basin in a few days.  Albeit we could see a development, the GFS, CMC, and FIM have split solutions, with the GFS now bringing a broad low north of the Islands, the CMC bringing a small  tropical storm through the Caribbean riding along 15N, with the FIM indicating a strong tropical wave along the same latitude.  Upper level winds may be somewhat favorable for development around that time, however the current shear forecast indicates a little less favorable than projected yesterday.

Since the tropics have become less active, I will begin posting temperature forecasts for the U.S. and snowfall potential products.  Again, every graphic posted on my site, will have a link, so you can click on the graphic for more detail.

CURRENT VALID SNOWFALL POTENTIAL PRODUCTS

GFS 72 HOUR OUTPUT

NAM 72 HOUR OUTPUT

WPC SNOWFALL PROBABILITIES PAGE

HRRR MODEL ACCUMULATED SNOW LOOP

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK / SNOWFALL PROBABILITY FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 24, 2013…ISSUED 10:25 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Thanks StormW

    While the season has been a “bust” in some people’s eyes, I feel the loss (so far) of about 43 lives means that we have seen yet another reason to keep up with your (and others) diligence in posting these reports for us.

    Again – THANKS

  2. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm. Good thing canned coffee has a long shelf life. Maybe you will have to get to stand a few duty days next year in the com center. Looks like this season confused everyone even Mother Natures signals didn’t add up. Now the real question when am I going to get a blizzard here in South Alabama?????

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Winter forecasts are greatly appreciated as well!!

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