Good day everyone!
The area of convection in the extreme southern BOC has inched closer to land overnight.
Current wind shear values are still roughly 30 knots over the area, and the wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds will remain non conducive over the next 72-96 hours. Satellite imagery does tend to indicate a circulation is trying to form, however the only way I would expect to see ANY organization of this, is if the associated stationary front breaks down, the front clears, and leaves this piece of energy behind. With total passage of the front, wind shear could relax.
Elsewhere, pretty quiet out in the tropics this morning. I’m still going to monitor the Caribbean with the forecast upward motion of the MJO entering our basin in a few days. Albeit we could see a development, the GFS, CMC, and FIM have split solutions, with the GFS now bringing a broad low north of the Islands, the CMC bringing a small tropical storm through the Caribbean riding along 15N, with the FIM indicating a strong tropical wave along the same latitude. Upper level winds may be somewhat favorable for development around that time, however the current shear forecast indicates a little less favorable than projected yesterday.
Since the tropics have become less active, I will begin posting temperature forecasts for the U.S. and snowfall potential products. Again, every graphic posted on my site, will have a link, so you can click on the graphic for more detail.
CURRENT VALID SNOWFALL POTENTIAL PRODUCTS
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)