TROPICAL STORM LORENZO / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 22, 2013…ISSUED 12:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good day everyone!

Tropical Storm Lorenzo continues to now move toward the ENE, and poses no threat to the U.S.  As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Storm Lorenzo, and is contained in the HURREVAC tracking map:

LORENZO

LORENZO 5 DAY

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FLOATER SATELLITE LOOP

Based on the current forecast steering layers maps, valid 12Z this morning, I expect Lorenzo to continue on this track for the next 48-72 hours, and concur with the NHC forecast track and TVCN/ TVCC consensus.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlybestinvestLORENZO

Lorenzo has strengthened to 50 mph, however based on the current wind shear forecast, NW shear should begin increasing and affecting the storm in the next 24-36 hours, and weakening should begin. This will probably be my last post on Lorenzo as the storm should dissipate over the open Atlantic within the next 3 days.

Elsewhere, cloudiness and showers persist north of Panama.  This area of weather is moving slowly toward the west at the moment.  Based on forecast steering, this entity should run into Nicaragua in the next couple of days.  Upper level winds are currently somewhat conducive over this activity.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Though this should not develop, I am going to continue monitoring the area between the SW Caribbean to the BOC, as the wind shear forecast still indicates a fluctuation of favorable upper level winds between those areas over the next 6-10 days.  Two of the models (GFS and FIM) indicate some development during the next 7-12 days in the Caribbean, with the GFS showing a TS that heads toward Puerto Rico, and the FIM trying to close off a strong tropical wave, and moving it toward the west.  The GFS does try to show something in the BOC prior to the mentioned TS.

GFS 288 / 360 HOURS
06zgfs500mbHGHTATL288

06zgfs500mbHGHTATL360

FIM MODEL

Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72-96 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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4 Responses to TROPICAL STORM LORENZO / TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 22, 2013…ISSUED 12:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Morning Storm, is something “going on” in the southern BOC?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I’m kinda with LT…the MJO has pretty much left us alone…curious to see if that will change.

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I guess we’ll see if this latest MJO will “Spin” anything up. The way this year has gone, I doubt it.

  4. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm do you think that we still have a chance for something to threaten us before hurricane season over? Thank you for the update.

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