Good day everyone!
Tropical Storm Lorenzo continues to now move toward the ENE, and poses no threat to the U.S. As of the 11:00 a.m. advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Tropical Storm Lorenzo, and is contained in the HURREVAC tracking map:
Based on the current forecast steering layers maps, valid 12Z this morning, I expect Lorenzo to continue on this track for the next 48-72 hours, and concur with the NHC forecast track and TVCN/ TVCC consensus.
Lorenzo has strengthened to 50 mph, however based on the current wind shear forecast, NW shear should begin increasing and affecting the storm in the next 24-36 hours, and weakening should begin. This will probably be my last post on Lorenzo as the storm should dissipate over the open Atlantic within the next 3 days.
Elsewhere, cloudiness and showers persist north of Panama. This area of weather is moving slowly toward the west at the moment. Based on forecast steering, this entity should run into Nicaragua in the next couple of days. Upper level winds are currently somewhat conducive over this activity.
Though this should not develop, I am going to continue monitoring the area between the SW Caribbean to the BOC, as the wind shear forecast still indicates a fluctuation of favorable upper level winds between those areas over the next 6-10 days. Two of the models (GFS and FIM) indicate some development during the next 7-12 days in the Caribbean, with the GFS showing a TS that heads toward Puerto Rico, and the FIM trying to close off a strong tropical wave, and moving it toward the west. The GFS does try to show something in the BOC prior to the mentioned TS.
Elsewhere, Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72-96 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)