TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY: LOW
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: NONE
Good day everyone!
Very quiet in the tropics so far today. The only are of interest appears to be a developing area of low pressure near Bermuda.
I am not really concerned with this area as it is a baroclinic low, and the NHC has designated an overall 10% chance of this becoming a Tropical Cyclone over the next 5 days. Forecast steering indicates the associated front will carry this of to the NE in time.
Elsewhere, analysis of global computer models do not indicate any tropical development over the next 7-10 days. Analysis of the MJO Multivariate index forecast shows models a little more agreeable of the upward motion pulse of the MJO to return to our basin in the next 7-14 days, and is also reflected in the CPC GFS MJO forecast graphic.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 days.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)