TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 16, 2013…ISSUED 11:35 A.M. EDT…PHFC

TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT PROBABILITY: LOW

SEVERE WEATHER THREAT: NONE

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

Very quiet in the tropics so far today.  The only are of interest appears to be a developing area of low pressure near Bermuda.

I am not really concerned with this area as it is a baroclinic low, and the NHC has designated an overall 10% chance of this becoming a Tropical Cyclone over the next 5 days.  Forecast steering indicates the associated front will carry this of to the NE in time.

Elsewhere, analysis of global computer models do not indicate any tropical development over the next 7-10 days.  Analysis of the MJO Multivariate index forecast shows models a little more agreeable of the upward motion pulse of the MJO to return to our basin in the next 7-14 days, and is also reflected in the CPC GFS MJO forecast graphic.

GFS MJO FORECAST

With the possible return of this pulse, we may have to watch the Caribbean and GOMEX areas.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 5 days.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III 
GMCS, USCG (ret) 
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST 
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS  
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced) 
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 16, 2013…ISSUED 11:35 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Storm, how are your boys doing? Still in my prayers. As to the weather, this year seems to have confounded everyone, so you have plenty of company. You, however, have been saying from early on that it wasn’t behaving normally. It will be interesting to see what evolves as the reasoning for the anomalies. I would hate to think that the earth is tilting a bit on its axis or something else that would make our climate and our environment drastically different. Lots of possibilities out there. 🙂

  2. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for the update Storm!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I think MJO is starting to stand for Major Joke Officially.

  4. Greg goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm. How is your son doing?

  5. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm.

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