TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 15, 2013…ISSUED 11:10 A.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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AS A REMINDER…DAYLIGHT SAVINGS TIME ENDS 2:00 A.M. NOVEMBER 03, 2013…CLOCKS ROLL BACK ONE HOUR

Good day everyone!

Not really anything going on so far today in the tropics.  I know satellite shows a lot of clouds and showers around the basin, however the shear monster got out of its cage.

ATLANTIC BASIN WIDE SATELLITE LOOP

NONE of the global models indicate any development during the next 5-7 days, however the NCEP EMC Multi Model and Ensemble output still indicates a chance of development within the next 5-10 days…however the probability has been decreased.  I know I keep mentioning this solution, which in reality, may be a very low probability.  However, the current wind shear forecast update still indicates between the GOMEX, and majority of the western and southern Caribbean over the next 4-10 days for upper level winds to become more conducive for tropical development…mainly limited to the Caribbean.  The following wind shear forecast maps may be put into motion.  Especially note the Zonal Shear map (the purple line equals ZERO wind shear, with the easterly shear values of -4 to -10 being the most favored areas).

NCEP EMC MULTI MODEL AND ENSEMBLE FORECAST

ZONAL SHEAR FORECAST

I am still watching the area in the Caribbean near the isthmus of Panama for any increase in shower activity.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The current MJO forecast indicates the majority of the models bring the MJO back into our area, albeit not too strong, in about 5-7 days from now.  This is another positive factor as to why my concerns for possible development in the Caribbean over the next 7-10 days.

MJO INDEX DYNAMIC MODELS FORECAST (LINKED)

Elsewhere, an offshore low is developing east of VA/NC.  I will keep tabs on this, however none of the global model solutions shows any significant development from this.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 72 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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8 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 15, 2013…ISSUED 11:10 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

  2. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm if something form’s in the carribean which way would it go?

  3. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, I guess if we get nothing in the next week or two, we can probably put this season, “in the books”! And then try to explain it. It will be interesting.

  4. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm, I’m amazed by the activity in the Pacific this late in the season. I guess thats why its called weather!!

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Did someone forget to remind the ATL it was Hurricane season? Definitely a unique year!!

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