Good afternoon everyone!
Analysis of satellite imagery this afternoon indicates a developing coastal low located off the SE N.Carolina coast near 33.5N…75.2W.
This low is currently moving NNE, and will move on more of a northerly course during the next 12 hours. Based on forecast steering layers maps, this low should be centered over the Chesapeake Bay / VAB area in about 2 to 2.5 days, becoming quasi-stationary, before retrograding southward by Saturday, then eventually moving out toward the NNE late Sunday / early Monday.
Depending on the expanse of the system and rain field, precipitation could affect portions of RI, CT, Long Island, and DE. Areas south of these points, down to NC, will be affected most.
Buoy data from around the low indicates waves of around 12-13 ft offshore, with winds of 23 knots with higher gusts. Analysis of the WaveWatch 3 model data suggests seas of 12ft may occur right at the coast due to the onshore flow of the low, and the pressure gradient from the low and the high to it’s north. This will most likely cause some beach erosion and minor coastal flooding, as well as rip currents. My advice to residents along the Tidewater and Mid Atlantic states is to STAY AWAY FROM THE BEACH and OFF THE WATER until this storm passes. Winds of 30-35 mph may occur close to the coast as well.
I will continue to monitor this system, and will try to have rainfall estimates and flooding potential information on tomorrows update.
Elsewhere, Tropical Disturbance INVEST 98L has become slightly better organized. The center of the disturbance as of 2:00 p.m. EDT was located near 10.5N…27.3W. Movement was west near 7 mph…Maximum winds were 30 mph, and estimated pressure was 1010 mb / 29.83 in.
Upper level winds based on the current wind shear map are still conducive for slow development, however upper level winds are forecast to become less conducive over the next 24 hours as of the current wind shear forecast from the GFS.
Intensity forecast models are in fair agreement of this disturbance becoming a minimal tropical storm during the next 2-3 days.
Based on analysis of the wind shear forecast out to days 5-7, and combining that with the proposed track, I believe we will see a waxing and waning in organization, as shear fluctuates between somewhat conducive to marginal over that time. Upper level winds are forecast to become favorable again as this disturbance nears 45-50W.
Analysis of the recent update to the forecast steering layers maps, valid for 00Z tonight, indicate a westward motion during the next 60-72 hours, before a turn toward the WNW occurs. Based on analysis of global models, this system should begin a more NW motion as it approaches close to 50W, and eventually re-curving out into the open Atlantic. Based on the 18Z dynamic model track guidance, I concur with the southern cluster of the suite mainly with the TVCN / TVCC / TVCA consensus model tracks.
I will continue to monitor this system for an significant changes during the next 72-96 hours.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)