TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 98L / AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 07, 2013…ISSUED 8:25 P.M. EDT

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Good evening everyone!

An area of disturbed weather between the Lesser Antilles and Bermuda continues to move toward the NW.  Upper level winds are not conducive for development at this time, and are currently forecast by the latest GFS wind shear forecast map to become only marginal in about 40 hours.  The NHC has designated a LOW (20%) chance of this developing into a tropical or subtropical cyclone during the next 5 days.  Analysis of this area and shear factors leads me to believe development if any will be slow to occur, and would most likely be sub-tropical.  I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes.

NWATL SATELLITE LOOP

Tropical disturbance INVEST 98L in the EATL continues to move toward the WNW at around 5-10 mph.

The current wind shear map indicates an upper level anticyclone over the area, however it is positioned just east of where the LLC was located at 2:00 p.m. EDT.  The following information was available on the ATCF/FTP site, and is posted in the tracking map.

GT 7 INVEST 98L TRACKING MAP
INVEST98L

INVEST 98L SATELLITE IMAGE

CATL SATELLITE LOOP

The disturbance continues to move toward the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue for about the next 36-40 hours, before a possible shift more toward the west could occur, based on the forecast steering layers maps valid for 00Z.  The 18Z model guidance reflects only a continued WNW motion, however if the steering winds forecast does not change, I expect a shift left.  Near the end of the 5-6 day forecast period however, a weakness in the ridge allows for this to turn NW, then recurve out to seas.  Some further slow development is likely as upper level winds are forecast to remain favorable during the next 36-48 hours, prior to becoming marginal thereafter.  I will continue to monitor this disturbance for any significant changes over the next few days.

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
18zatcfearlybestinvest98L

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

 
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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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One Response to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 98L / AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SOUTH OF BERMUDA FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 07, 2013…ISSUED 8:25 P.M. EDT

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm.

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