TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN REMNANT / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 06, 2013…ISSUED 3:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

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UPDATE:  OCT. 06, 2013…9:30 P.M. EDT…PALM HARBOR FORECAST CENTER:

Please give a warm welcome for Tropical Disturbance INVEST 98L.  This disturbance has just recently been designated.  At 8:00 P.M. EDT, the following information was available per ATCF / FTD data and is in the Global Tracks map:

GT7 INVEST 98L TRACKING MAP
INVEST98L

INVEST 98L SATELLITE IMAGERY

The disturbance is moving toward the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 36 hours.  Analysis of forecast steering layers maps indicate the weakness to the NW of the system to fill, as the ridge begins to build slowly toward the west.  Since this is newly designated, dynamic model track guidance is not available at this time.

I ‘ll have an update tomorrow.


Good day everyone!

Before I post this brief synopsis, I wanted to add a little note;

I know when you visit this site, you probably always see “Tumbler” the dog requesting donations.  First and foremost, I wish to thank ALL OF YOU who have contributed to my site.  For future visitors, if there is a way possible, your donation helps as well.  Although my main activity remains hurricane forecasting during the year, the site does not shutdown.  I am active ALL year with winter time weather, winter and springtime coastal storm development forecasts, and as ALWAYS…Severe weather information.  Some of the information I’m able to get for you, comes from the aid of professional sites which require me to pay a monthly subscription.  Other items are derived from software I have purchased myself, in order to provide you the most accurate forecasts possible.  I also incur yearly website domain name fees.  So, yes, your donation actually does help out.

Tropical Storm Karen was downgraded to a depression yesterday, and is now a remnant low.  As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, the NHC has issued the last advisory on Karen.

Satellite lop imagery shows the diffuse LLC of the remnant NW of the area of convection in the GOMEX.  

KAREN REMNANT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on forecast steering layers maps, this entire area should continue toward the E to ENE, and will increase precipitation probs along the west FL. coast over the next couple of days.

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOPS

Satellite loop imagery indicates another center may be developing SE the convection, however even though upper level winds at the moment are a little better than marginal, they are forecast to once again turn unfavorable for development.

I will be monitoring this regardless, for rainfall intensity, and will provide Doppler Radar images as it comes closer to the coast.

Elsewhere, it doesn’t appear Mother Nature is finished.  Climatologically speaking, we have a second small peak in the season around mid month.  Analysis of global models tend to indicate an area of low pressure developing anywhere from 200 miles of the SEUS coast to off the Mid Atlantic region in about 4-5 days.  Most of the modeling seems to be keen on this, with a couple developing a subtropical entity.  I will be monitoring this during the week for signs of development in that area, and analyzing forecast steering if development does take place.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP 

Based on analysis of the upcoming pattern over the next 8-10 days, pressure heights, along with on and off model possibilities, indicates some chance of a situational development in the SW Caribbean in about 12-14 days.  I will continue monitoring this area for any such development.

A tropical wave in the EATL is being monitored for any signs of development.  Upper level winds at this time are fairly conducive for further slow development, however upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in about 60-72 hours.  A couple of the models (CMC / FIM) seem to develop on a WNW track to north of the Leeward Island and north of the Greater Antilles, however if the shear forecast is correct, I have to throw out this solution at the moment.

EATL SATELLITE IMAGE

Have a blessed Sunday!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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6 Responses to TROPICAL DEPRESSION KAREN REMNANT / TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 06, 2013…ISSUED 3:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Yellow and orange circles. For a season that supposedly has nothing going on, you’re still being kept really busy! And with winter storms starting early, you’re not catching a break. But I must be mistaken because there’s nothing to this season. Thanks for all you do, Storm. Those of us on this site know that even the ones that don’t turn into monsters still require an awful lot of attention from you.

  2. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm, Didn’t get much here in lower Alabama, Just a few rain showers. notthiung to write home about. I hope to send a donation soon Storm. I’m on that fixed income also. Hopefully we get paid the first of the month.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. It looks like dry air and shear have really put a damper on the season. As far as donations go…this divorce is killing me…complications up the wazoo. Let me see what I can put together as I can’t thank you enough for your dedication.

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