UPDATE: OCT. 06, 2013…9:30 P.M. EDT…PALM HARBOR FORECAST CENTER:
Please give a warm welcome for Tropical Disturbance INVEST 98L. This disturbance has just recently been designated. At 8:00 P.M. EDT, the following information was available per ATCF / FTD data and is in the Global Tracks map:
The disturbance is moving toward the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 36 hours. Analysis of forecast steering layers maps indicate the weakness to the NW of the system to fill, as the ridge begins to build slowly toward the west. Since this is newly designated, dynamic model track guidance is not available at this time.
I ‘ll have an update tomorrow.
Good day everyone!
Before I post this brief synopsis, I wanted to add a little note;
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Tropical Storm Karen was downgraded to a depression yesterday, and is now a remnant low. As of 11:00 a.m. EDT, the NHC has issued the last advisory on Karen.
Satellite lop imagery shows the diffuse LLC of the remnant NW of the area of convection in the GOMEX.
KAREN REMNANT SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Based on forecast steering layers maps, this entire area should continue toward the E to ENE, and will increase precipitation probs along the west FL. coast over the next couple of days.
Satellite loop imagery indicates another center may be developing SE the convection, however even though upper level winds at the moment are a little better than marginal, they are forecast to once again turn unfavorable for development.
I will be monitoring this regardless, for rainfall intensity, and will provide Doppler Radar images as it comes closer to the coast.
Elsewhere, it doesn’t appear Mother Nature is finished. Climatologically speaking, we have a second small peak in the season around mid month. Analysis of global models tend to indicate an area of low pressure developing anywhere from 200 miles of the SEUS coast to off the Mid Atlantic region in about 4-5 days. Most of the modeling seems to be keen on this, with a couple developing a subtropical entity. I will be monitoring this during the week for signs of development in that area, and analyzing forecast steering if development does take place.
Based on analysis of the upcoming pattern over the next 8-10 days, pressure heights, along with on and off model possibilities, indicates some chance of a situational development in the SW Caribbean in about 12-14 days. I will continue monitoring this area for any such development.
A tropical wave in the EATL is being monitored for any signs of development. Upper level winds at this time are fairly conducive for further slow development, however upper level winds are forecast to become unfavorable in about 60-72 hours. A couple of the models (CMC / FIM) seem to develop on a WNW track to north of the Leeward Island and north of the Greater Antilles, however if the shear forecast is correct, I have to throw out this solution at the moment.
Have a blessed Sunday!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)