Good afternoon all!
Tropical Storm Karen remains disorganized this afternoon, and has weakened further. Information from the 11:00 a.m. Advisory from the NHC provided the following information, and is contained int he Global Tracks map:
Satellite imagery still indicates the LLC of Tropical Storm Karen remains displaced from the heavy convection to the WNW by about 80-100 nm, albeit in the last few frames, convection is now seen firing very close to the center.
GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY
Based on satellite loop imagery, Karen has been pretty much quasi-stationary over the past couple of hours, and I expect a more northward motion to begin later this evening.
Based on analysis of the steering layers forecast maps valid for 12Z today, and information contained in the NHC forecast discussion regarding the ECMWF handling track forecast very well thus far, I agree to a point on the NHC forecast track in the tracking maps, however do not be surprised once Karen passes Louisiana, to see a sharper turn toward the east, meaning what may be left of this system could affect the Big Bend region of the Florida Peninsula. Based on this information, I agree with the dynamic model track guidance up to Louisiana, and prefer a track further to the right of the consensus models TVCA/TVCN.
NHC WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY
NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS LINK
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STORM SURGE…
THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…
TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA…1 TO 3 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST…
WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL…
KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
Given that Karen is still decoupled, and with the presence of dry air on her western side, I am not looking for any strengthening now, unless the current flareup of convection we see maintains itself close to or over the center for the next 12 hours. In fact, when the reconnaissance aircraft reaches her, wouldn’t bee surprised if they downgrade her to a depression. I know this has been a big change from a few days ago in the forecast, however, this seems to be the worst that shear forecast models have performed thus far this season. The current shear forecast update shows upper level winds remaining not favorable for any further development over the next 48-72 hours.
I know some folks probably did begin preparations while the hurricane watch was in effect. But as I have ALWAYS stated, and I am the same way…I’d rather be prepared and not get the worst, than get the worst and not be prepared. However, since we have not experienced any major damaging landfalls in the past few seasons, use this as a training experience, in knowing what has to be done in the event of a hurricane strike in your area.
I will continue to monitor this system, and if possible, may have another late night update.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)