TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 05, 2013…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good afternoon all!

Tropical Storm Karen remains disorganized this afternoon, and has weakened further.  Information from the 11:00 a.m. Advisory from the NHC provided the following information, and is contained int he Global Tracks map:

GLOBAL TRACKS 7 KAREN TRACKING MAP
KAREN

KAREN.OVERALL

Satellite imagery still indicates the LLC of Tropical Storm Karen remains displaced from the heavy convection to the WNW by about 80-100 nm, albeit in the last few frames, convection is now seen firing very close to the center.

KAREN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on satellite loop imagery, Karen has been pretty much quasi-stationary over the past couple of hours, and I expect a more northward motion to begin later this evening.

Based on analysis of the steering layers forecast maps valid for 12Z today, and information contained in the NHC forecast discussion regarding the ECMWF handling track forecast very well thus far, I agree to a point on the NHC forecast track in the tracking maps, however do not be surprised once Karen passes Louisiana, to see a sharper turn toward the east, meaning what may be left of this system could affect the Big Bend region of the Florida Peninsula.  Based on this information, I agree with the dynamic model track guidance up to Louisiana, and prefer a track further to the right of the consensus models TVCA/TVCN.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlybestinvestKAREN

NHC WATCH / WARNING DISPLAY

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP (CLICK ON IMAGE

NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS LINK
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls2.shtml

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND 

WIND…TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN PORTIONS OF THE WATCH AREA TONIGHT AND SUNDAY. STORM SURGE…

THE COMBINATION OF STORM SURGE AND THE TIDE WILL CAUSE NORMALLY DRY AREAS NEAR THE COAST TO BE FLOODED BY RISING WATERS. THE WATER COULD REACH THE FOLLOWING HEIGHTS ABOVE GROUND IF THE PEAK SURGE OCCURS AT THE TIME OF HIGH TIDE…

TERREBONNE BAY LOUISIANA TO CEDAR KEY FLORIDA…1 TO 3 FT THE HIGHEST WATER WILL OCCUR ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST…

WHERE THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY DANGEROUS WAVES. SURGE-RELATED FLOODING DEPENDS ON THE RELATIVE TIMING OF THE SURGE AND THE TIDAL CYCLE…AND CAN VARY GREATLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES. FOR INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA…PLEASE SEE PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE. RAINFALL…

KAREN IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL GULF COAST AND SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES THROUGH MONDAY EVENING…MAINLY NEAR AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PATH OF THE CENTER. ISOLATED STORM TOTAL AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.

 Given that Karen is still decoupled, and with the presence of dry air on her western side, I am not looking for any strengthening now, unless the current flareup of convection we see maintains itself close to or over the center for the next 12 hours.  In fact, when the reconnaissance aircraft reaches her,  wouldn’t bee surprised if they downgrade her to a depression.  I know this has been a big change from a few days ago in the forecast, however, this seems to be the worst that shear forecast models have performed thus far this season.  The current shear forecast update shows upper level winds remaining not favorable for any further development over the next 48-72 hours.
I know some folks probably did begin preparations while the hurricane watch was in effect.  But as I have ALWAYS stated, and I am the same way…I’d rather be prepared and not get the worst, than get the worst and not be prepared.  However, since we have not experienced any major damaging landfalls in the past few seasons, use this as a training experience, in knowing what has to be done in the event of a hurricane strike in your area.

I will continue to monitor this system, and if possible, may have another late night update.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 05, 2013…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. Very Good Update. This update was very detailed and had lots of information. I agree with your statement that Karen will not strengthen. Thanks

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm . I think we are real fortunate for the strong WSW sheer and dry air. Karen’s center core really held on pretty well. If conditions were not so hostile, it may have really developed into a strong one.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Storm, do you expect Karen to be pretty much it for the season or should we be expecting more?

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Karen…a 3’8″ blob of uncertainty. Good news for the SEUS.

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