TROPICAL STORM KAREN…LATE EVENING UPDATE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 04, 2013…ISSUED 9:35 P.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good evening all!

Tropical Storm Karen has weakened over the past 12 hours, and the LLC remains exposed to the west of the heavy convection due to some westerly to WSW wind shear.  The forecast for the wind shear was for it to relax enough to allow convection to remain closer to the center, based on the previous 3 days runs of the GFS shear forecast. However, based on information contained in the NHC forecast discussion text, shear had been underestimated, as data from a NOAA-G IV flight flying a surveillance mission revealed shear was stronger than originally thought…therefore, Karen remains decoupled.  The storm has become almost stationary, and may resume a brief NNW motion, before turning to the NE.  The following information as of the 8:00 p.m. EDT Intermediate advisory from them NHC, and is contained in the tracking map.  Please note…the map graphic is only updated with the 5:oo p.m. data.

GLOBAL TRACKS 7 KAREN TRACKING MAP
KAREN

TROPICAL STORM KAREN / GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on the shear and dry air still in place, it wouldn’t surprise me to see Karen weaken further.  Based on the current wind shear forecast still, as the storm begins to move toward the NE, and passes the LA eastern coastal area, models indicate wind shear could possibly relax, as discussed in the 5:00 p.m. NHC forecast discussion, and some slight strengthening could occur before a second landfall int he FL. Panhandle.  So, right now, I have two scenarios for you at the moment…should wind shear keep steady and not relax, there is the chance the LLC may continue northward, separated from the convection, and could possibly dissipate.  On the other hand, should the wind shear relax for the brief moment prior to the FL. Panhandle, the strengthening per the NHC could occur.  Based on this, I will be on in the morning to continue monitoring the situation.

WIND SHEAR FORECAST VARIOUS MODELS

In light of the weakening trend, the NHC discontinued the HURRICANE WATCH earlier today, and that portion of the update was posted earlier, in that the NHC may in fact cancel the HURRICANE WATCH.  I can truly empathize for those folks who began preparations, as I have personally been in that situation myself, only to have the storm turn away less than 12 hours from landfall.

As far as forecast track, I have to go with the current NHC track, as the 00Z dynamic model track guidance is now showing a sharper turn to the right, just barely clipping LA. and coming a little further east as far as landfall in the FL. Panhandle, however not by much.  This could be due to the decoupled center, as far as the shift in the model guidance.

00Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
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In any case, the NHC still expects the same storm surge values over the same locations, and the following SLOSH data provides a close approximation of these values.  SLOSH data accuracy is plus or minus 20% of the values flagged.

SLOSH MODEL DISPLAY
KARENdisplay

KARENdisplayFL
The threat of coastal flooding and beach erosion still exists, as well as some inland flooding and Tornadoes at landfall.

Residents in the Watch and Warning areas need to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Office statements closely.

NWS LOCAL STATEMENTS LINK
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls2.shtml

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to TROPICAL STORM KAREN…LATE EVENING UPDATE FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 04, 2013…ISSUED 9:35 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks for the updates Storm…What would you say about the remainder of the season?

  2. originallt says:

    Well, at least it didn’t react the opposite way–that is get much stronger than was thought. Better it became more disorganized.

  3. DellamomCleauxmom says:

    Thank you Monty. And I agree God bless Storm. I’d rather prepare for more than I get than get mire than I prepare for. We are at thenirthshore house without internet, but I will let you know by iPhone if anything much happens here . Be safe Greg and mike.

  4. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Is there going to be anything that goes right this season? God Bless Dellamom…Mike and everyone down there. This could have been so much worse. Take care all of you!! Thanks Storm for your awesomeness!! Much appreciated!!!!!!!!!!!

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