TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED…OCT. 03, 2013…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

Tropical Storm Karen has developed near the Yucatan Peninsula this morning.  Information from a Hurricane Hunter Aircraft reported sustained winds of 60 mph.

As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT SPECIAL ADVISORY form the NHC, the following information was available on Karen, and is posted on the tracking map:

GLOBAL TRACKS 7 KAREN TRACKING MAP
KAREN

KAREN FIVE DAY ERROR CONE
KAREN.ERROR

Karen is moving toward the NNW, and I expect this motion to continue today, before a turn toward the north occurs early tomorrow.

TROPICAL STORM KAREN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY / GOMEX LOOP IMAGERY

Analysis of the current steering layer mean, and forecast steering layers maps indicates this scenario, and I agree with a track blend of the TVCA / TVCN, and NHC track (OFCI).

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlybestinvestKAREN

Right now, based on this, the center of Karen should make landfall within the next 60-72 hours near Mobile Bay AL.  This is based on current forecast parameters, and is subject to change with any changes that may occur in the steering pattern during that time.

Analysis of the current wind shear map from CIMSS indicates upper level winds are marginally conducive at the moment, however the GFS wind shear forecast indicates the upper level environment to improve somewhat during the next 12-24 hours, which could allow for further slow strengthening.  The wind shear forecast calls for a fluctuation in wind shear over the next 2-3 days from slightly more conducive to marginal.  The NHC has made a stipulation in the forecast discussion, that should Karen track further east, she could be stronger.  This I believe is due to the fact, that the GFS Zonal Shear forecast has a small core of zero zonal shear value moving with Karen, which if she  tracks further east, would be directly under this area.

Based on this analysis, I have to concur at the moment with the NHC intensity forecast,with the more reliable intensity forecast models indicating the forecast.

NHC FORECAST DISCUSSION WITH INTENSITY
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCDAT2+shtml/031312.shtml?

12Z INTENSITY MODELS FORECAST
12zatcfearlyintensityinvestKAREN INTENSITY

Portions of the Gulf Coast states are under a HURRICANE WATCH.  A HURRICANE WATCH means hurricane conditions could affect your area within the next 48 hours.  Hurricane Conditions do not necessarily mean sustained winds of 74 mph or greater, but a combination of high wind, and waves, along with tidal surge. I have a link on the side of the page, which is a Hurricane Preparedness brochure.  Please take time to read this over, and take the necessary precautions listed for a HURRICANE WATCH.

NHC WATCHES / WARNINGS MAP

 Albeit, IF Karen becomes a hurricane, due to the forecast of wind shear increasing just prior to landfall…you should at least be prepared for a STRONG Tropical Storm with sustained winds of near 60 mph, with higher gusts.  Albeit she may only be TS status upon landfall, she will push water inland, so be prepared for coastal and inland flooding, rip currents, and tornadoes.  Again, being an eastern weighted system, the strongest portion of this storm will be near, and right of where the center comes ashore.

ALL maps I am posting will be LINKED, so please take the time to click on them for more information.

I will be posting another update sometime this evening.  Once Karen moves to within Radar range, I will provide Doppler radar loops, and will try to post any flooding and surge information, as some of the offices providing this data are closed.

Residents under the HURRICANE and TROPICAL STORM WATCH areas should Monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and local NWS Office statements for any action necessary if and when warnings are issued.

NWS LOCAL HURRICANE STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls2.shtml

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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9 Responses to TROPICAL STORM KAREN FORECAST SYNOPSIS…HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED…OCT. 03, 2013…ISSUED 10:40 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. dellamom says:

    Just saw my last post. Should have said DELLAMOM is prepared and watching, not “delusion.” Autocorrect is sometimes very unfortunate. I would be surprised if it doesn’t go east of us, but we are watching at the office and at home. My boss asked me yesterday evening and again today what the weather was doing. He knows I get good information from you. Thank you.

  2. Mike Doll says:

    Time to set the heavy weather bill here in lower Alabama. Glad I’m prepared except for generator fuel. Thanks storm
    Living two miles easr of mobile bay you got my attention!!

  3. Beachgirl says:

    Thanks storm!!

  4. originallt says:

    Thank you again Storm for another great up-date. Looking at the RGb image floater you supply, it looks like Karen’s center is becoming exposed–I guess it’s that WSW wind sheer you referred to in your last post. Would that tend to weaken the storm if it continues? Definitely the heaviest convection is not around the center, it’s off to it’s East,–at least for now.

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Out of all times for NOAA/others to shut down…why now…timing is everything.

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