TROPICAL STORM KAREN EVENING FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 03, 2013…ISSUED 7:10 P.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
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Good evening everyone!

Tropical Storm Karen continues on a NNW course this evening.  Maximum sustained winds are 65 mph.  As of the 5:00 p.m. EDT Advisory from the NHC, the following information was available on Karen, and is contained in the tracking map:

GT 7 KAREN TRACKING MAP / FORECAST TRACK ERROR MAP
KAREN

KAREN.ERROR

Based on satellite loop images throughout the day, the LLC of Karen had become displaced from the convection, which has been pretty much to the NE of the center.  This is attributed to around 20 knots of WSW wind shear at the moment.  However, based on the latest wind shear tendency map from CIMSS, shear has been on the decrease just to the NW of the storm, and mid level shear drops down to about 5 knots around 2 more degrees from the center position.  Current mid level shear is running about 10 knots. These factors may be allowing for the current building of convection almost directly over the center or just on the eastern edge of the center of Karen.

KAREN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP

CIMSS SHEAR TENDENCY MAP PAST 24 HOURS

MID LEVEL WIND SHEAR

Also noted earlier in the loop, was an outflow boundary, or arc cloud if you will, indicating Karen had taken in some dry air.

The most recent GFS wind shear forecast indicates upper level wind may remain marginal for further intensification, however dry air to her NW may inhibit any steady strengthening.  Save any more dry air intrusion, Karen has only one extremely small window of opportunity to attain Category One hurricane status…briefly.  Based on the position of Karen in the NHC tracking map, where they designate her a hurricane, a small core of an anticyclonic upper air pattern develops briefly, where wind shear and zonal shear values drop to almost zero…this may be why the NHC still shows minimal hurricane intensity before weakening begins prior to landfall.  Based on the current Intensity Model Guidance, we may see a steady drop in intensity around 12 hours prior to landfall, as wind shear will once again increase.  Based on this analysis, sustained winds may be around 60-65 mph near landfall.

Based on analysis of the current steering layers mean, and forecast steering layers maps valid for 00Z this evening, I like the NHC forecast track as far as how the track should occur, however current steering indicates Karen may move a little more left, possibly bringing the landfall point one degree west.  The current track is a shift from the 18Z dynamic model track guidance, and is a good call by the NHC.

18Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
18zatcfearlybestinvestKAREN

Regardless, albeit Karen may not be a hurricane at landfall, her wind field has been expanded.  A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT, and residents under the watch area should be making preparations…even though it may just seem precautionary, a HURRICANE WATCH is A HURRICANE WATCH.  I added a new preparedness link from FEMA, as the NOAA Preparedness brochure was not available.  These links are on the side of the page under BLOGROLLS.

NHC WATCHES AND WARNING TEXT LINK
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT2+shtml/032047.shtml?

WATCH AND WARNING GRAPHIC

U.S. RAINFALL POTENTIAL

The following map is interactive..if you have trouble using it…please let me know here, or at twalsh22000@yahoo.com

TROPICAL CYCLONE POTENTIAL IMPACT GRAPHIC
http://w1.weather.gov/tcig/php/tcig_index.php?sid=mob&threat=coastal

Residents are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and LOCAL NWS OFFICE Statements.  ALL graphics posted are linked for close up views and interactive information.

NWS LOCAL HURRICANE STATEMENTS
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/index_hls2.shtml

I will continue to monitor Karen closely, and will have another update in the a.m.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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12 Responses to TROPICAL STORM KAREN EVENING FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 03, 2013…ISSUED 7:10 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Storm, looking at this mornings satellite presentations, the heavy convection is really dis-placed to the East of Karen’s center. The center is really exposed. I think we could see a real weakening of the system if it can’t “fire” any more convection around that center. That WSW sheer you mentioned yesterday is really doing a number on it.

  2. Teresa says:

    Our “Tampa” is heading to Tampa, guess they might have to slow down and wait a day or two…be on the look out for ’em Stormy!

  3. Jill says:

    Having our girls weekend in Ft. Morgan, Alabama on the beach. Karen has decided to join our party. How dangerous will she be? Winds? Coastal flooding?
    Thanks

  4. Mike Doll says:

    Got fuel for the generator here in Lower Alabama. Have all of my supplies. I’m ready so lerts bring it on!!!!

  5. greg goodman says:

    Thanks mr storm for the updates and also thankyou originallt.

  6. originallt says:

    Thanks so much Storm for all your posts today, I know you are keeping right on top of this. Looks like it may make an almost direct hit on Mobile AL. I hope it goes just East of there, and Greg is on the weaker side of the storm.

  7. Dee says:

    Oh you have made my weekend!!!!!! Hurricane watching and admiring!!! Been waiting all summer for this little ole ts but it will work!

  8. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…keeping the gang informed. We love ya Senior Chief!!

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