TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 97L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 02, 2013…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good afternoon everyone!

Tropical Disturbance INVEST 97L continues to become slowly better organized.  Within the last hour or so, satellite representation has improved and seems as if the circulation is beginning to “tighten”.  The last reported center position base don the ATCF/FTP text information, placed the center of circulation near 18.1N…85.3W.  Analysis of shortwave IR2 satellite loop imagery confirmed this, however I would not be surprised to see the center relocate a bit further east near 20.0N…84.5W.  The following information was available as of 8:00 a.m. EDT this morning, and is contained in the Global Tracks tracking map:

GT7 INVEST 97L TRACKING MAP
INVEST 97L

INVEST 97L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Current wind shear data from  CIMSS indicates upper level winds a very favorable at this time for further development.  The wind shear map indicates an upper level anticyclone is now centered over INVEST 97L, and upper level winds indicate a strong outflow jet to the north, and clockwise around the eastern portion of the system.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR DATA

UPPER LEVEL WINDS

The GFS wind shear forecast still indicates upper level winds to remain favorable for further slow development over the next 48-50 hours, becoming somewhat marginal once this enters the GOMEX, and somewhat less conducive prior to landfall.

Based on these analyses, I am forecasting further organization and development for today, followed by a slowing as this approaches very close, if not over the extreme NE Yucatan Peninsula.  We should see, based on the wind shear forecast, which has been consistent over the past 72-96 hours, a slow recovery as this moves northward in the GOMEX, until around 12-24 hours prior to landfall, in which some weakening may begin.  This scenario pretty much agrees with the intensity guidance, which the more reliable models bring this to a 40-50 mph tropical storm in about 48-60 hours, and are split in this maintaining that strength, or weakening it prior to coming ashore.

12Z INTENSITY MODEL GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlyintensityinvest97L INTENSITY

Based on the current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this system to continue on a NW course for the next 36 hours, and heading more toward the north as it moves through the central GOMEX.  This is pretty much the scenario presented by the 12Z dynamic model guidance, which is very tightly clustered as of that run.  Based on this, I look for a track inline with the consensus models TVCA / TVCN / TVCC.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL TRACK GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlybestinvest97L

Albeit the dynamic models have shifted right, we have seen things change very quick, so, I recommend residents from the LA coast, however more so from the MS/AL border to the FL Panhandle.  Residents may wish to prepare for possible tropical storm force winds from coastal AL, to the FL. Panhandle.  Given the nature of this system, dry air will most likely keep this an eastern weighted system, meaning the highest winds and rainfall should occur east of where the center comes ashore.  The biggest concern at the moment when this comes ashore, and comes close to the area, are possible rip currents, flash flooding, and the ever present possibility of tornadoes.  Residents could also experience power outages in various areas with the higher gusts, mainly to any trees that may be uprooted to the soaking rain, and combination of wind gusts.

LINK TO 5 AND 7 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/day1-7.shtml

When this enters the GOMEX, residents in these areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and Local NWS office statements for any possible action required.

I will be monitoring this system closely, and will update as deemed necessary>

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to TROPICAL DISTURBANCE INVEST 97L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 02, 2013…ISSUED 12:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm for your report. I have to say that as it nears 5pm here in the East, that this storm is one of the “best looking” invests I’ve ever seen! Really nice vis. satellite presentation.

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Aren’t conditions usually ripe for development this time of year in the GOMEX? I know there are certain factors but it seems that the GOMEX has been a death trap this season.

  3. Greg goodman says:

    Mr storm thank you for your updates so do you think I will be on the right side and this does not have a chance to be a hurricane?

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