Good afternoon everyone!
Tropical Disturbance INVEST 97L continues to become slowly better organized. Within the last hour or so, satellite representation has improved and seems as if the circulation is beginning to “tighten”. The last reported center position base don the ATCF/FTP text information, placed the center of circulation near 18.1N…85.3W. Analysis of shortwave IR2 satellite loop imagery confirmed this, however I would not be surprised to see the center relocate a bit further east near 20.0N…84.5W. The following information was available as of 8:00 a.m. EDT this morning, and is contained in the Global Tracks tracking map:
Current wind shear data from CIMSS indicates upper level winds a very favorable at this time for further development. The wind shear map indicates an upper level anticyclone is now centered over INVEST 97L, and upper level winds indicate a strong outflow jet to the north, and clockwise around the eastern portion of the system.
The GFS wind shear forecast still indicates upper level winds to remain favorable for further slow development over the next 48-50 hours, becoming somewhat marginal once this enters the GOMEX, and somewhat less conducive prior to landfall.
Based on these analyses, I am forecasting further organization and development for today, followed by a slowing as this approaches very close, if not over the extreme NE Yucatan Peninsula. We should see, based on the wind shear forecast, which has been consistent over the past 72-96 hours, a slow recovery as this moves northward in the GOMEX, until around 12-24 hours prior to landfall, in which some weakening may begin. This scenario pretty much agrees with the intensity guidance, which the more reliable models bring this to a 40-50 mph tropical storm in about 48-60 hours, and are split in this maintaining that strength, or weakening it prior to coming ashore.
Based on the current and forecast steering layers maps, I expect this system to continue on a NW course for the next 36 hours, and heading more toward the north as it moves through the central GOMEX. This is pretty much the scenario presented by the 12Z dynamic model guidance, which is very tightly clustered as of that run. Based on this, I look for a track inline with the consensus models TVCA / TVCN / TVCC.
Albeit the dynamic models have shifted right, we have seen things change very quick, so, I recommend residents from the LA coast, however more so from the MS/AL border to the FL Panhandle. Residents may wish to prepare for possible tropical storm force winds from coastal AL, to the FL. Panhandle. Given the nature of this system, dry air will most likely keep this an eastern weighted system, meaning the highest winds and rainfall should occur east of where the center comes ashore. The biggest concern at the moment when this comes ashore, and comes close to the area, are possible rip currents, flash flooding, and the ever present possibility of tornadoes. Residents could also experience power outages in various areas with the higher gusts, mainly to any trees that may be uprooted to the soaking rain, and combination of wind gusts.
LINK TO 5 AND 7 DAY PRECIPITATION TOTALS
When this enters the GOMEX, residents in these areas are urged to monitor NOAA Weather Radio, and Local NWS office statements for any possible action required.
I will be monitoring this system closely, and will update as deemed necessary>
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)