Good morning everyone!
This synopsis will only concern INVEST 97L, as Jerry has weakened and is still moving off toward the E.
Satellite and satellite loop imagery indicates INVEST 97L has become a bit better organized overnight. As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT ATCF/FTP data, the following was available on Tropical Low INVEST 97L, and is contained in the Global Tracks tracking map, with past positions shown in italics.
The low continues to move slowly toward the NW at around 5 mph, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 30-36 hours, before a bend toward the left occurs, possibly allowing the low to interact slightly with the Yucatan Peninsula, before a more northward turn around Thursday takes place. This is based off analysis of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, valid for 12Z this morning.
Based on this analysis, I concur at the moment with the Dynamic Model guidance, and I am in the middle of the suite at this time, as steering could still change before the end of the forecast period, depending on the forward motion and strength of this system.
Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates a small upper level anticyclone almost directly over the center of the system, and the wind shear tendency continues to show decreasing wind shear values. The upper level winds feature indicates an outflow channel, or jet if you will, to the north of the system, but lacking else where at the moment.
The GFS wind shear forecast still indicates wind shear values to decrease, providing a more conducive upper level environment for further organization and development during the next 72 hours, with shear values increasing to a marginal value for development, however not detrimental based on the forecast at the moment. I must point out however, the GFS has been consistent on this for the past 2 days worth of runs. One item that could hinder any steady development is still the presence of dry air close to the low. I will be monitoring this factor, as the low was sitting in drier air yesterday, but has seemed to moisten up the atmosphere directly around it overnight. Should 97L be able to negate the dry air, then this could change how the system organizes. Based on current intensity forecast models, the majority indicate 97L will attain minimal TS status between 40-50 mph prior to landfall, with some dropping it to depression status, and the most reliable maintaining a minimal TS. Most of the Global Models don’t really develop this, 2 keep it as a depression at landfall, and the FIM brings this to the LA coast as a minimal TS. Right now, I am having the tendency not to discount the FIM model, as it is the only model at the moment that has initialized the low in the correct location.
Based on current and forecast steering maps, and Dynamic Model track guidance, residents along the Gulf Coast from LA to the FL. Panhandle may wish to monitor this system in case any significant changes occur.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)