TROPICAL LOW INVEST 97L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 01, 2013…ISSUED 9:55 A.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS ARE NEEDED
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Good morning everyone!

This synopsis will only concern INVEST 97L, as Jerry has weakened and is still moving off toward the E.

Satellite and satellite loop imagery indicates INVEST 97L has become a bit better organized overnight.  As of the 8:00 a.m. EDT ATCF/FTP data, the following was available on Tropical Low INVEST 97L, and is contained in the Global Tracks tracking map, with past positions shown in italics.

GT7 INVEST 97L TRACKING MAP
INVEST 97L

INVEST 97L SATELLITE LOOP / WATL SATELLITE LOOP


The low continues to move slowly toward the NW at around 5 mph, and I expect this motion to continue for the next 30-36 hours, before a bend toward the left occurs, possibly allowing the low to interact slightly with the Yucatan Peninsula, before a more northward turn around Thursday takes place.  This is based off analysis of the forecast steering layers maps from the PSU e-WALL site, valid for 12Z this morning.

Based on this analysis, I concur at the moment with the Dynamic Model guidance, and I am in the middle of the suite at this time, as steering could still change before the end of the forecast period, depending on the forward motion and strength of this system.

12Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
12zatcfearlybestinvest97L

Analysis of the current wind shear product from CIMSS indicates a small upper level anticyclone almost directly over the center of the system, and the wind shear tendency continues to show decreasing wind shear values. The upper level winds feature indicates an outflow channel, or jet if you will, to the north of the system, but lacking else where at the moment.

CIMSS WIND SHEAR

The GFS wind shear forecast still indicates wind shear values to decrease, providing a more conducive upper level environment for further organization and development during the next 72 hours, with shear values increasing to a marginal value for development, however not detrimental based on the forecast at the moment.  I must point out however, the GFS has been consistent on this for the past 2 days worth of runs.  One item that could hinder any steady development is still the presence of dry air close to the low.  I will be monitoring this factor, as the low was sitting in drier air yesterday, but has seemed to moisten up the atmosphere directly around it overnight.  Should 97L be able to negate the dry air, then this could change how the system organizes.  Based on current intensity forecast models, the majority indicate 97L will attain minimal TS status between 40-50 mph prior to landfall, with some dropping it to depression status, and the most reliable maintaining a minimal TS.  Most of the Global Models don’t really develop this, 2 keep it as a depression at landfall, and the FIM brings this to the LA coast as a minimal TS.  Right now, I am having the tendency not to discount the FIM model, as it is the only model at the moment that has initialized the low in the correct location.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST (NOTE: When using the wind shear scale, for a system to be under favorable conditions, winds must be no more than 10 on the color scale)

12Z INTENSITY MODELS
12zatcfearlyintensityinvest97L INTENSITY

FIM MODEL OUTPUT

Based on current and forecast steering maps, and Dynamic Model track guidance, residents along the Gulf Coast from LA to the FL. Panhandle may wish to monitor this system in case any significant changes occur.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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11 Responses to TROPICAL LOW INVEST 97L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…OCT. 01, 2013…ISSUED 9:55 A.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. joanie55 says:

    Storm, I guess Louisiana might be out of this one…no ?

  2. Mike Doll says:

    Thanks Storm, I thik its safe to not plan anything this weekend here Alabama Gulf Coast. Might get some work out of this tropical blob or I won’t. Will stay tuned for further evaluations from you.

  3. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

  4. dellamom says:

    Storm, I don’t like like the FIM conclusion. Please pick another one, preferably one that helps Texas out. 🙂 Seriously, thanks for the heads up. I will be watching this. I am sure Greg in Mobile will be watching too, since either one or the other of us will probably see something out of this. The peace of mind I have knowing you are watching this for us is, to me, invaluable. Bless you and yours.

  5. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Should 97L strengthen more than forecast…could it track further left?

  6. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, looks like things will get interesting in a few days, especially if 97L develops into KAREN. If it does develop, I hope Karen “behaves” herself and is a good girl.–meaning, not getting too strong.

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