SPECIAL UPDATE: INVEST 97L BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED…FORECAST SYNOPSIS OCT. 01, 2013…ISSUED 10:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS ARE NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good evening everyone!

Tropical Low INVEST 97L has become better organized over the past couple of hours, with a northern outflow channel evident in the loop imagery, and an apparent developing outflow channel toward the south, in other words, 97L is getting “that” look. It is noted in satellite loop imagery of various channels the a LLC has become more consolidated.  If you watch the color AVN loop, you can see there was a vortex just NE of all the convection.  This is where I felt IF a reformation were to occur, that would be it.  However as of the 8:00 p.m. EDT information provide by the ATCF/FTP site, the center was located near 17.4N…83.8W.  The 8:00 p.m. information is posted in the GT7 tracking map:

GT7 INVEST 97L TRACKING MAP
INVEST 97L

INVEST 97L SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The low continues to move toward the NW, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 48-72 hours.  Based on the forecast steering layers maps valid for 00Z, the center may clip the NE portion of the Yucatan Peninsula, before entering the southern GOMEX.  Once in the GOMEX, I expect a more northward component to the system (NNW) before a northward motion takes place.  Based on the current position, and analysis of the forecast steering layers maps, save any center reformation, I agree with the 00Z run of the Dynamic Model guidance forecast, in which models seem pretty well clustered at the moment, and I prefer the TVCN / TVCC / TV15 / TVCA consensus tracks.  If a center reformation were to occur east or NE of the current position, I would be right of these models.

00Z DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE
00zatcfearlybestinvest97L

The current wind shear map indicates the upper level anticyclone has shifted slightly from the center, but doesn’t appear to be detrimental.

The GFS wind shear forecast still shows upper level winds becoming a little more conducive in about 12 hours or so, and should remain somewhat favorable, until this enters the GOMEX, where upper level winds are forecast to become somewhat marginal, albeit shear values in the forecast track do not appear to be detrimental.

Dry air is still a factor, and may be a factor throughout the life span of this low, however it appears to be holding it’s own.

97L WATER VAPOR LOOP

Based on these analyses, I am forecasting further slow development of this INVEST, and it is possible we could see depression within the next 72 hours.

The current intensity forecast models on the 00Z run indicate most of the more accurate intensity models bring this low to Tropical Storm Status, and keeping it as a minimal, to medium strength Tropical Storm at landfall.

00Z INTENSITY FORECAST MODELS
06zatcfearlyintensityinvest97L INTENISTY

Residents from the Central LA coast, to the FL Panhandle, and possibly Big Bend area, should monitor the progress of this system in case any significant changes occur.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

Advertisements

About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
This entry was posted in Tropical Synopsis. Bookmark the permalink.

2 Responses to SPECIAL UPDATE: INVEST 97L BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED…FORECAST SYNOPSIS OCT. 01, 2013…ISSUED 10:30 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Think I’m starting to see some rotation, and banding starting on 97L. Looking forewords to the experts opinion on this storm to be. I know Storm you are studying this as I post!

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, looks very healthy this morning, I wouldn’t be surprised if it is declared a depression some time today, maybe even a T.S. by tonight or tomorrow.

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s