SPECIAL UPDATE: SW CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE / DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM / INVEST 96L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 28, 2013…ISSUED 8:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good evening everyone!

The area which we have been watching for the offshore development has not developed yet, and may be spawned near the ULL spinning near FL seen in water vapor loop imagery.  I’m watching for a surface low to develop possibly near 32.5N…72.0W.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

WATER VAPOR LOOP

Based on global model analysis today, models are in good agreement of keeping this further offshore than was projected in my last forecast.  Based on this, the main concern appears to be for marine interests, however the WaveWatch 3 model suggests winds of 30-35 mph may occur from the Cape Cod area, through the Gulf of Maine at the CPA.  Waves of 6-9 ft could occur close to the coast.  Given this system has not fully developed yet, I am going to monitor this to see where it initially begins to strengthen, as based on satellite loop images, this may be initialized by models a little further east.  I will keep you up to date on the situation as it changes.

WAVE WATCH 3 MODEL

INVEST 96L has been designated from the area in the CATL I had been monitoring.  This area has become better organized, and could become a tropical cyclone during the next 3-5 days.  This system is only a concern for shipping, as it is forecast to continue toward the NNW, take an anticyclonic loop, and curve out into the open Atlantic.

CATL SATELLITE IMAGERY

Closer to home, the area I have been monitoring over the past 2-3 days in the SW Caribbean, has been given a LOW (10%) chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours, by the NHC.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

This activity has been almost stationary over the past couple of days, but should begin pretty much a NW motion soon.  One item of interest is, Visible and RGB satellite loop imagery prior to losing sunlight, indicated a LLC may be trying to develop near 14.8N;77.0W

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Wind shear values are currently marginal, as an upper level anticyclone is south of the “center”, providing some wind shear.  However the upper level wind map indicates an outflow channel beginning from the western, north semicircle, around to the east.

WIND SHEAR

The current update to the GFS wind shear forecast map indicates upper level winds to become more conducive over the next 24 hours, and remain fairly favorable for development over the next 96 hours.  Based on this, and the level of TCHP in the western Caribbean, we should see further development of this area over the next 48-72 hours.

Based on analysis of global models earlier, the majority do develop a tropical depression or tropical storm.

GFS
18zgfs500mbHGHTATL114

CMC
12zggem500mbHGHTATL120

UKMET
12zukmet500mbHGHTATL120

FIM

Based on analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, valid for 00Z, this system may affect the Florida Peninsula anywhere from the Big Bend area, to the Florida Keys and southern Florida.  Should this develop, once we have a solid system, model guidance will give a better idea as far as steering.

I will continue to monitor this system closely over the next 72 hours for any significant changes.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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7 Responses to SPECIAL UPDATE: SW CARIBBEAN DISTURBANCE / DEVELOPING OFFSHORE STORM / INVEST 96L FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 28, 2013…ISSUED 8:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. You’re all welcome, and thank you!

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…looks like we have TD11…on a clear cut path to…nowhere?? FIM guidance does your area no good with the Caribbean system. Here we go again.

  3. originallt says:

    Morning Storm, just looked at the Sunday morning satellite, and there is a cluster of clouds about 300 miles off the Virginia coast, that appears to be backing Westward, is that the disturbance you were talking about?

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks for your weekend report Storm, get some rest, that Caribbean “thing” may have you awake for long hours in a few days!

  5. Go away for a few hours and all of a sudden there are 2 (count them 2) red and yellow circles on the NHC presentation! Thanks Storm for being there a little ahead of the others!

  6. Jerilyn (jerrob) says:

    Ditto what Elliot said 🙂

  7. Elliot Lisak says:

    Good Evening Master Chief,

    Thank you for taking the time & effort to provide clear and concise information this evening. Much appreciated.

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