Good day everyone!
I am still monitoring a small area of disturbed weather in the Southern Caribbean Sea. The area has been waxing and waning with convection overnight, and another small flareup is noted as of analysis.
Steering currents are not really strong at the moment, but a general W to WNW motion is the most plausible, based on the current steering layer mean map.
Upper level winds are currently not conducive for development, however the latest wind shear forecast from the GFS shows the upper level pattern becoming more conducive in about 24-30 hours, showing a developing upper level anticyclone over the area.
Based on this, and the slow motion of the disturbed weather, I will monitor this over the weekend for any signs of development.
I’m continuing to monitor the area of disturbed weather in the CATL. Upper level winds are not favorable at this time for any development, however the wind shear forecast calls for upper level winds to become more conducive in about 24 hours. This could allow for some slow development before this area reaches cooler water.
Based on analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, I expect a NW motion to continue for the next 2-3 days, before this begins to recurve out to sea.
The offshore / subtropical system I’ve been speaking of is beginning to materialize off the SEUS coast approximately 450-475 miles east of St. Augustine, FL.
This low is moving slowly toward the ENE at the moment, and I expect a motion toward the NE to begin later today. Based on forecast steering layers maps, and global model output, this low should continue to about 70W longitude, before turning back and making a NNE motion back toward the U.S. Analysis of the majority of the global models indicates two of them do shift this a little closer to the Eastern Seaboard, but no direct landfall with this. This shift hasn’t been drastic, but may prove enough to cause some undesirable effects around the Mid Atlantic area in about 4-5 days. The ECMWF keeps it the furthest east, with the GFS, and CMC now a little closer toward the U.S. Forecast steering seems to agree with the GFS/CMC solution, however this can rapidly change.
Based on analysis of the WaveWatch 3 model this morning, which is based of the GFS input, areas along the coast from NJ to the Gulf of Maine, could experience waves of 6-9 ft along the coast. This could cause minor beach erosion and flooding along the beaches, as well as rip currents. Some portions of the area could experience winds of 25-30 mph near the coast, and 30-35 mph offshore around the center of the low, and to the north, with an onshore flow over Nova Scotia and Gulf of Maine area. Again, this is if the GFS/CMC solution are correct. Once this develops, I’ll have a much clearer picture as to which model is correct, being able to track things in real time. I will continue to follow this over the weekend for any changes and subtropical development, and will post if needed.
Have a blessed weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)