TROPICAL WEATHER / OFFSHORE LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 27, 2013…ISSUED 1:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good day everyone!

I am still monitoring a small area of disturbed weather in the Southern Caribbean Sea.  The area has been waxing and waning with convection overnight, and another small flareup is noted as of analysis.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Steering currents are not really strong at the moment, but a general W to WNW  motion is the most plausible, based on the current steering layer mean map.

Upper level winds are currently not conducive for development, however the latest wind shear forecast from the GFS shows the upper level pattern becoming more conducive in about 24-30 hours, showing a developing upper level anticyclone over the area.

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Based on this, and the slow motion of the disturbed weather, I will monitor this over the weekend for any signs of development.

I’m continuing to monitor the area of disturbed weather in the CATL.  Upper level winds are not favorable at this time for any development, however the wind shear forecast calls for upper level winds to become more conducive in about 24 hours.  This could allow for some slow development before this area reaches cooler water.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on analysis of the current steering layers forecast maps, I expect a NW motion to continue for the next 2-3 days, before this begins to recurve out to sea.

The offshore / subtropical system I’ve been speaking of is beginning to materialize off the SEUS coast approximately 450-475 miles east of St. Augustine, FL.

EASTERN U.S. SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

SSEC GEOSTATIONARY IMAGE LOOP

This low is moving slowly toward the ENE at the moment, and I expect a motion toward the NE to begin later today.  Based on forecast steering layers maps, and global model output, this low should continue to about 70W longitude, before turning back and making a NNE motion back toward the U.S.  Analysis of the majority of the global models indicates  two of them do shift this a little closer to the Eastern Seaboard, but no direct landfall with this.  This shift hasn’t been drastic, but may prove enough to cause some undesirable effects around the Mid Atlantic area in about 4-5 days.  The ECMWF keeps it the furthest east, with the GFS, and CMC now a little closer toward the U.S.  Forecast steering seems to agree with the GFS/CMC solution, however this can rapidly change.

GFS
06zgfs500mbHGHTATL096
CMC
00zggem500mbHGHTATL102
ECMWF
00zecmwf500mbHGHTATL072
UKMET
00zukmet500mbHGHTATL096

Based on analysis of the WaveWatch 3 model this morning, which is based of the GFS input,  areas along the coast from NJ to the Gulf of Maine, could experience waves of 6-9 ft along the coast.  This could cause minor beach erosion and flooding along the beaches, as well as rip currents.  Some portions of the area could experience winds of 25-30 mph near the coast, and 30-35 mph offshore around the center of the low, and to the north, with an onshore flow over Nova Scotia and Gulf of Maine area.  Again, this is if the GFS/CMC solution are correct.  Once this develops, I’ll have a much clearer picture as to which model is correct, being able to track things in real time.  I will continue to follow this over the weekend for any changes and subtropical development, and will post if needed.

WAVEWATCH 3 WAVE HEIGHTS / WIND SPEED AND DIRECTION

Have a blessed weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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3 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / OFFSHORE LOW FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 27, 2013…ISSUED 1:25 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Looking at satellite photos from late Saturday afternoon, I can’t see where that storm that might affect the extreme eastern New England area is–unless it’s that cloud mass NE of Bermuda. But it appears to be heading NE out to sea. Unless it is expected to make a “hard left turn” and head towards or just off shore of Cape Cod. I just don’t see it at this time. Maybe something “new” is whats being expected to form off the East coast? Bermuda is about 65 degrees W and that stormy area is east of that all ready.

  2. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, still keeping an “eye” on that possible sub-tropical system up here. Thanks for checking on it.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. The eyes of NOAA are upon you. LOL

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