Good day everyone!
Another area of disturbed weather has materialized in the southern Caribbean near Panama. Satellite lop imagery indicates a decent blow up of convection over the past few hours.
Currently, upper level winds are not conducive for development…however the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds should become favorable for development in the next 36-48 hours, with an upper level anticyclone building over the central Caribbean.
Current steering layer mean indicates this should move slowly toward a north of west motion over the next 24 hours, and could possibly move on a more WNW course in 36 hours, as there is a weakness in the ridge over the GOMEX (Gulf Of MEXico) and Gulf Coast states.
I will continue to monitor this area for any signs of development during the next 48-72 hours.
Elsewhere, an area of disturbed weather I’ve been monitoring in the CATL, has become better organized since yesterday, and is now a rather large area of showers and thunderstorms. Upper level winds are not conducive at the moment, however may become more conducive during the next 48 hours, allowing for some slow development.
This area is moving toward the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 24-36 hours. Based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, this area should recurve in the open Atlantic beginning in about 48 hours, and should not pose any threat to landmasses.
The GFS has backed off its solution of a strong Tropical Storm near the Yucatan Peninsula / Channel area in 12-14 days, but does indicate a possible depression SE of Jamaica in the same forecast time. I will be monitoring this for consistency in the GFS, and for any agreement from other global models, as upper level winds around that time, may be conducive for development over that area.
There has been pretty much no change in my forecast regarding the offshore gale / subtropical storm that will begin to take shape off the SEUS coast in about 3 days. Models are still in agreement of this tracking far enough offshore, that it should not pose any threat to the U. S. Eastern Seaboard. The only model at the moment bringing it close enough, is the CMC, which would have a slight impact on the Cape Cod area. However, The CMC is the outlier with this track and strength.
I will continue to monitor this situation, for any significant changes as it develops.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)