TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 26, 2013..ISSUED 1:20 P.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good day everyone!

Another area of disturbed weather has materialized in the southern Caribbean near Panama.  Satellite lop imagery indicates a decent blow up of convection over the past few hours.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Currently, upper level winds are not conducive for development…however the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds should become favorable for development in the next 36-48 hours, with an upper level anticyclone building over the central Caribbean.

Current steering layer mean indicates this should move slowly toward a north of west motion over the next 24 hours, and could possibly move on a more WNW course in 36 hours, as there is a weakness in the ridge over the GOMEX (Gulf Of MEXico) and Gulf Coast states.

700-850 MB STEERING LAYER MEAN

I will continue to monitor this area for any signs of development during the next 48-72 hours.

Elsewhere, an area of disturbed weather I’ve been monitoring in the CATL, has become better organized since yesterday, and is now a rather large area of showers and thunderstorms.  Upper level winds are not conducive at the moment, however may become more conducive during the next 48 hours, allowing for some slow development.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

This area is moving toward the WNW, and I expect this motion to continue during the next 24-36  hours.  Based on analysis of forecast steering layers maps, this area should recurve in the open Atlantic beginning in about 48 hours, and should not pose any threat to landmasses.

The GFS has backed off its solution of a strong Tropical Storm near the Yucatan Peninsula / Channel area in 12-14 days, but does indicate a possible depression SE of Jamaica in the same forecast time.  I will be monitoring this for consistency in the GFS, and for any agreement from other global models, as upper level winds around that time, may be conducive for development over that area.

GFS
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There has been pretty much no change in my forecast regarding the offshore gale / subtropical storm that will begin to take shape off the SEUS coast in about 3 days.  Models are still in agreement of this tracking far enough offshore, that it should not pose any threat to the U. S. Eastern Seaboard.  The only model at the moment bringing it close enough, is the CMC, which would have a slight impact on the Cape Cod area.  However, The CMC is the outlier with this track and strength.

I will continue to monitor this situation, for any significant changes as it develops.

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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10 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 26, 2013..ISSUED 1:20 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm!

  2. Capt Bruce (ret.) says:

    …. ” I think they read my stuff”… LOL!!

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. Right on target as usual…nice to see the NHC finally caught up.

  4. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm. Not much going on, which, while not “exciting” is really best for all of us, here and abroad.

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