TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 25, 2013…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

Good afternoon everyone!

I continue to monitor the area off the NE FL. coast.  This energy, will be met with the low which has pummeled FL. with heavy rains over the past 24 hours.  The combination of these two features,along with a forecast trof split in about 2-3 days, will be the catalyst for the upcoming offshore storm.  Analysis of the current runs of all the global models indicate, this low could become sub-tropical in nature.  As of the analysis, the ECMWF and CMC have come around to other model solutions, and now keep this feature further off the U.S. east coast, with Nova Scotia appearing to receive the brunt in about 7 days.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT

GFS
12zgfs500mbHGHTATL120

ECMWF
12zecmwf500mbHGHTATL120

CMC
12zggem500mbHGHTATL120

UKMET
12zukmet500mbHGHTATL120

NAVGEM
12znavgem500mbHGHTATL144

Analysis of current WaveWatch 3 information indicates the eastern U.S. coastal area may not be impacted much, given the forecast path of the storm.

WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST

WAVE HEIGHT

WIND VELOCITY AND DIRECTION

I will be keeping tabs on it however, in case any significant changes occur.

I am still monitoring an area in the CATL with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity near 37-40W.  A analysis of satellite loop imagery, various channels, indicates two areas of cyclonic turning.  However, the circulation near 37W is showing a slight increase in convection.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Upper level winds are not favorable at the moment, however the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds may become more conducive over the next 24 hours.  I will continue to monitor this area as it moves WNW.

The area I have been watching in the southern Caribbean is somewhat better organized.  However, I am not expecting development, as this area is moving west, and should run into land sometime later tonight.

CARIBBEAN SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

The GFS is indicating a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane in about 10-14 days. This develops just over the Windward Islands, and strengthens as it moves toward the Yucatan Channel/Peninsula  Not sure if the catalyst for this is what is located in the CATL at the moment, but I cannot rule this out, as the GFS wind shear forecast indicates a rather expansive upper level anticyclone over that portion of the Caribbean during that time.

GFS
12zgfs500mbHGHTATL276

12zgfs500mbHGHTATL384

GFS WIND SHEAR FORECAST

Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed evening!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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2 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 25, 2013…ISSUED 5:00 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. greg goodman says:

    Mr storm this system approaching the yuctan in 10 to 14 days were do you think it might go after that?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm…good news for the NEUS…wouldn’t want to be in Nova Scotia. Got any early guesses on the CATL system??

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