Good afternoon everyone!
I continue to monitor the area off the NE FL. coast. This energy, will be met with the low which has pummeled FL. with heavy rains over the past 24 hours. The combination of these two features,along with a forecast trof split in about 2-3 days, will be the catalyst for the upcoming offshore storm. Analysis of the current runs of all the global models indicate, this low could become sub-tropical in nature. As of the analysis, the ECMWF and CMC have come around to other model solutions, and now keep this feature further off the U.S. east coast, with Nova Scotia appearing to receive the brunt in about 7 days.
GLOBAL MODEL OUTPUT
Analysis of current WaveWatch 3 information indicates the eastern U.S. coastal area may not be impacted much, given the forecast path of the storm.
WAVEWATCH 3 FORECAST
I will be keeping tabs on it however, in case any significant changes occur.
I am still monitoring an area in the CATL with disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity near 37-40W. A analysis of satellite loop imagery, various channels, indicates two areas of cyclonic turning. However, the circulation near 37W is showing a slight increase in convection.
Upper level winds are not favorable at the moment, however the current wind shear forecast from the GFS indicates upper level winds may become more conducive over the next 24 hours. I will continue to monitor this area as it moves WNW.
The area I have been watching in the southern Caribbean is somewhat better organized. However, I am not expecting development, as this area is moving west, and should run into land sometime later tonight.
The GFS is indicating a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane in about 10-14 days. This develops just over the Windward Islands, and strengthens as it moves toward the Yucatan Channel/Peninsula Not sure if the catalyst for this is what is located in the CATL at the moment, but I cannot rule this out, as the GFS wind shear forecast indicates a rather expansive upper level anticyclone over that portion of the Caribbean during that time.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected during the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed evening!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)