Good day all!
Been busy here on my end lately, so I haven’t been really able to reply to comments, but I do appreciate you posting them.
Still very quiet for September. I am monitoring one area nearing the CATL between 5N and 10N. This disturbed weather is associated with the southern portion of a tropical wave axis. Satellite loop imagery indicates some rotation starting with this, in the last 2-3 frames of the loop. Convection is limited at this time, and upper level winds are only marginal for development at the moment. This weather should move in a general W-WNW direction over the next 24-36 hours, before a more defined WNW then NW motion ensues.
Based on this, the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds will become unfavorable for development in about 24-36 hours. Any development that could occur, would be very slow to do so. I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes over the next 48 hours.
IF the update MJO OLR forecast pans out, we may very well see an active October.
Elsewhere, global models are in fair agreement of an area of low pressure developing off the SEUS coast in about 4 days from today. The GFS shows this beginning east of Florida, and the ECMWF and CMC a little further north, with both the ECMWF and CMC in agreement of this low moving northward, very close to the U.S. east coast, with the GFS indicating a track further east by about 75 nm.
Analysis of the models this morning indicates a forecast trof split to occur off the SEUS coast in about 4 days. What appears to take place is, the current surface feature which is left from INVEST 95L, notable in satellite loop imagery, continues moving eastward and eventually east of Florida. This meets up with a developing low pressure cell associated with the trof split, and the combination kicks off a gale center, or a baroclinic low if you will. Looking at the forecast motion from the global models, this moves toward the NNW for a period, then northward. 2 of the global models as of this morning, have this affecting the Eastern Seaboard anywhere from around the MD area, to Long Island NY. At the moment, I think the CMC may be overdone on strength, however models indicate the possibility of subtropical development. Depending on how close this tracks to the Eastern Seaboard, residents may experience gusty winds, heavy rain, beach erosion and possible flash flooding…sound familiar? Now, before anybody gets alarmed, and compares this to Sandy, this is only one run of the global models. I will be taking another look at forecast parameters sometime late this afternoon, or sometime this evening. Should I feel the need to update this, it will most likely be late evening before I get the chance.
Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.
Have a blessed day!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)