TROPICAL WEATHER / POSSIBLE COASTAL – SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 24, 2013…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

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Good day all!

Been busy here on my end lately, so I haven’t been really able to reply to comments, but I do appreciate you posting them.

Still very quiet for September.  I am monitoring one area nearing the CATL between 5N and 10N.  This disturbed weather is associated with the southern portion of a tropical wave axis.  Satellite loop imagery indicates some rotation starting with this, in the last 2-3 frames of the loop.  Convection is limited at this time, and upper level winds are only marginal for development at the moment.  This weather should move in a general W-WNW direction over the next 24-36 hours, before a more defined WNW then NW motion ensues.

CATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Based on this, the current wind shear forecast indicates upper level winds will become unfavorable for development in about 24-36 hours.  Any development that could occur, would be very slow to do so.  I will continue to monitor this area for any significant changes over the next 48 hours.

IF the update MJO OLR forecast pans out, we may very well see an active October.

OLR FORECAST

Elsewhere, global models are in fair agreement of an area of low pressure developing off the SEUS coast in about 4 days from today.  The GFS shows this beginning east of Florida, and the ECMWF and CMC a little further north, with both the ECMWF and CMC in agreement of this low moving northward, very close to the U.S. east coast, with the GFS indicating a track further east by about 75 nm.

GFS
12zgfs500mbHGHTATL126
12zgfs500mbHGHTATL156
ECMWF
00zecmwf500mbHGHTATL120
CMC
00zggem500mbHGHTATL066
00zggem500mbHGHTATL144

Analysis of the models this morning indicates a forecast trof split to occur off the SEUS coast in about 4 days.  What appears to take place is, the current surface feature which is left from INVEST 95L, notable in satellite loop imagery, continues moving eastward and eventually east of Florida.  This meets up with a developing low pressure cell associated with the trof split, and the combination kicks off a gale center, or a baroclinic low if you will.  Looking at the forecast motion from the global models, this moves toward the NNW for a period, then northward.  2 of the global models as of this morning, have this affecting the Eastern Seaboard anywhere from around the MD area, to Long Island NY.  At the moment, I think the CMC may be overdone on strength, however models indicate the possibility of subtropical development.  Depending on how close this tracks to the Eastern Seaboard, residents may experience gusty winds, heavy rain, beach erosion and possible flash flooding…sound familiar?  Now, before anybody gets alarmed, and compares this to Sandy, this is only one run of the global models.  I will be taking another look at forecast parameters sometime late this afternoon, or sometime this evening.  Should I feel the need to update this, it will most likely be late evening before I get the chance.

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Tropical Storm formation is not expected through the next 48 hours.

Have a blessed day!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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16 Responses to TROPICAL WEATHER / POSSIBLE COASTAL – SUBTROPICAL DEVELOPMENT FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 24, 2013…ISSUED 1:50 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. uglyemt says:

    Hello again Everyone. Hey Storm hope things find you well.

    Quick question, what if any ocean impacts are we looking at time frame wise up in the Northeast? I have a diving trip planed for Sunday this week and after 2 weeks of gorgeous weather now a storm threatens the plans.

  2. originallt says:

    Morning Storm and all, WOW Storm, looks like you are really being “pounded” today with heavy rain and gusty winds!. Is this the entity that could form the storm along the SE Coast?

    • Actually, partially. It appears this elongated area of energy off the SEUS coast right now eventually feeds into the low, which should be clearing FL, and phases with a trof split. This starts the whole process in about 3 days.

  3. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. My sympathies to Dellamom and TexasHurricane. You guys went through hell. Hopefully LT…you don’t have to go through the same in the NEUS. What a crazy season. It’s almost like we had four months of October…crazy!!

  4. dellamom says:

    You know, one thing I am worried about, this season was led in with very high estimates by the respected forecasters (Storm included). I hear a lot about this season being a bust, or nothing happening, but it seems to me that there’s been a LOT happening, even if development has not been excessively successful. We are well into the alphabet, more than some years have been, I’d wager given our history with Hurricane Betsy in early September of that year. But because the systems that were out there did not ramp up into something huge (yet!), people think this season is a “dud.” The same thing happened a few years ago when we ended up almost to the end of the alphabet and people were saying that nothing had happened, just because it hadn’t greatly impacted the CONUS, although the Caribbean was affected. The point is, if people think nothing happened this season (Mexico would probably disagree) as opposed to the early projections, when we get a season that is just as active, but with better generation of larger systems, people are not going to be prepared, and I feel sorry for them. Sorry for the rant, but it was either this or run yelling after the idiots I heard today making stupid comments, and I look TERRIBLE in orange.

  5. dellamom says:

    My sympathies TexasHurricane. My family fled to Texas during Katrina, and Texas treated us beautifully and with such compassion. My mom and I returned 15 days later, and my sister’s family stayed in Beaumont, where her husband’s company had relocated to one of their sites while their New Orleans area headquarters were de-Katrina-ized. What little they took with them to Texas was lost in Rita because they were visiting his brother in Denham Springs that weekend and they couldn’t get back to Beaumont due to Rita’ depradations. They ended up at my house in Mandeville, with my mother and me and only what they took from the hotel for their weekend with his brother. I had been a frequent platelet donor for years and just about everyone in the house ended up wearing (and sleeping in) East Jefferson General Hospital Blood Bank T-shirts! It was like the uniform of our little asylum or something.

    • TexasHurricane says:

      So sorry to hear of the hardship during that time. I hope things are much improved now.
      Glad to hear that us Texans were helpful during your time here. Beaumont is not far from me. Maybe about 20 minutes or so. I’m closer to the LA border. 🙂

      • dellamom says:

        Much better, thank you. And the courtesy and compassion of Texans was widespread from all I heard. We have a house north of I-12 now (outside mandatory evacuation zones), and a natural gas powered generator, so we are the go-to house in an emergency. Keeping my fingers crossed that y’all get just enough rain for the drought, but not enough to flood.

  6. TexasHurricane says:

    Thanks Storm…Today marks the 8 year anniversary of Hurricane Rita. I remember that storm like it was yesterday……being evacuated for 2 weeks was just crazy…..think the GOM is done for this season or should we still be on the look out?

  7. originallt says:

    Thanks again, just checked the “old” blog” and you answered me there. I’ll go by what you think rather than what they say on TV here. They go only by the models where as you use the models but add your own knowledge and incite to them.

  8. originallt says:

    Thanks Storm, and thanks for looking into this possible development off the SE Coast and maybe moving on up the coast.

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