SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 21, 2013…ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

DONATIONS NEEDED
Funny dog holds dollars in mouth, isolated white background

WELCOME TO THE VERNAL EQUINOX

Good afternoon everyone!

The ghost of INVEST 95L has the low level circulation now becoming absorbed into the approaching frontal system.  Albeit the NHC has now designated a LOW (0%) chance for development into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 48 hours, I will explain a couple things in this synopsis based on my morning analysis.

NHC GRAPHICAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK

GOMEX SATELLITE LOOP IMAGES

Upper level winds are marginal, and are forecast to remain marginal over the next 18-24 hours, before the remnant becomes totally involved in the front.  There is however, a nice established outflow channel to the north and south.  Based on this, and given any wind shear will ride from SW to NE on the front, I am not willing to rule out sub-tropical development during the next 24 hours.

Regardless of development or not, residents along the southern Gulf coast from TX to MS should be aware that heavy rains are very possible, along with flash flooding in some areas.

NWS DOPPLER RADAR LOOP CORPUS CHRISTI

5 DAY QPF (Quantitative Precipitation Forecast) VALUES
06zgfsCumulativePrecipSP120

I will watch this on and off over the weekend and update as I can, if needed.

Elsewhere, I am monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean for any signs of development.  At the moment, this is associated with a mid to upper level low, and has not worked to the surface as of yet.   I will monitor this area for any significant changes.

WATL SATELLITE LOOP IMAGERY

Have a great weekend!

T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS 
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)
CoCoRaHS OBSERVER

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About palmharborforecastcenter

I am a Tropical Forecast meteorologist, providing hurricane forecasts during the Atlantic Hurricane Season. I retired from the U.S. Coast Guard in July of 2001. Meteorology became my passion in high school, and I have continued my educational background in meteorology since 1996, when I undertook the study of Tropical Meteorology. While working toward my degree, I had to unexpectedly withdraw from college due to my oldest sons medical reasons. I do however, meet the educational criteria of the AMS to be recognized as a meteorologist. Studies include, but are not limited to the Navy Aerographers Mate course, Naval METOC meteorology course, Meteorology 2010 Sophomore level course while attending St. Petersburg College, Clearwater, FL., Basic Forecasting course for operational meteorologists from Rapid WX, meteorology institute, a four month meteorological internship, and extensive research on numerous meteorological topics such as the MJO, NAO, satellite imagery interpretation, etc. I have been forecasting Tropical Weather (Tropical Storms and Hurricanes) since 1996, with my main client being three different Coast Guard Commands.
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5 Responses to SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER FORECAST SYNOPSIS…SEP. 21, 2013…ISSUED 1:15 P.M. EDT…PHFC

  1. originallt says:

    Interesting area , Storm, SW of you in the Gomex. Also , is something “brewing” in the SW Caribbean Sea?

  2. Monty says:

    Thanks Storm. I will alert the gang along the GOMEX. Have a great weekend!!

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