WELCOME TO THE VERNAL EQUINOX
Good afternoon everyone!
The ghost of INVEST 95L has the low level circulation now becoming absorbed into the approaching frontal system. Albeit the NHC has now designated a LOW (0%) chance for development into a Tropical Cyclone in the next 48 hours, I will explain a couple things in this synopsis based on my morning analysis.
Upper level winds are marginal, and are forecast to remain marginal over the next 18-24 hours, before the remnant becomes totally involved in the front. There is however, a nice established outflow channel to the north and south. Based on this, and given any wind shear will ride from SW to NE on the front, I am not willing to rule out sub-tropical development during the next 24 hours.
Regardless of development or not, residents along the southern Gulf coast from TX to MS should be aware that heavy rains are very possible, along with flash flooding in some areas.
I will watch this on and off over the weekend and update as I can, if needed.
Elsewhere, I am monitoring an area of disturbed weather in the NW Caribbean for any signs of development. At the moment, this is associated with a mid to upper level low, and has not worked to the surface as of yet. I will monitor this area for any significant changes.
Have a great weekend!
T. F. “STORM” WALSH III
GMCS, USCG (ret)
METEOROLOGIST / HURRICANE SPECIALIST
MEMBER WEST CENTRAL FL AMS
CERTIFIED SKYWARN OFFICIAL STORM SPOTTER (advanced)